Weekly Commentary: Sometimes Not Liquid At All

2026-02-28 03:45:39 ET

Crisis dynamics gained important momentum this week.

"Blue Owl Shares Post Worst Month Ever on Private Credit Fears." "KKR BDC Slides on Rise in Troubled Loans." "BlackRock Private Debt Fund Slumps After Slashing Dividend." "Apollo's MFIC Slashes Dividend, Marks Down Assets, Announces $100M Buyback." "Private Credit Firm Invico Calls Investors to Manage Exodus Risk." "No Fed, No Safety Net: Why Private Credit's First Real Recession Will be its Moment of Truth." "Blackstone Private Debt Fund Sees More Stress in Software Assets." "Bain Warns Software Default Rate Risks Hitting Double Digits." "Blackstone's Schwarzman Reaped Near-Record $1.24 Billion in 2025."

Blue Owl's 2.4% decline this week pushed y-t-d (2-month) losses to 29.4%. KKR sank 13.3% (down 31.2% y-t-d), Ares Management 9.1% (down 30.7%), Apollo Management 12.6% (down 27.7%), and Blackstone 6.5% (down 26.5%). These stocks are sending a strong Credit cycle signal.

Bloomberg: "Bank Shares Walloped by More 'Cockroach' Credit Woes, AI." "Banks Trade Like We're in the Midst of Crisis."...

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