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Record low real yields across the world betray an exceptional degree of macro angst. Or do they? Don’t look at rates in isolation. Other markets are fine. The tide of central bank purchases lifts all boats, and normal liquidity conditions will only return at the end of the ...
Nearly 51% of manufacturing and service sector businesses report output to be same or higher than levels seen before COVID-19 outbreak. Manufacturers more likely than services firms to report a recovery in output. UK below global average, as China far outpaces the rest of the worl...
Global stocks are all over the place as some indexes fall into correction as others continue to extend higher into record territory. Asian stocks should have a strong open following the PBOC’s RRR cut. This is quite the pivot by the central bank and it should support the notion...
As the world convalesced from the pandemic, stocks advanced in the second quarter and earnings rebounded across sectors. With business gains broadening amid complex market risks, we think investors should lean on quality to find stocks that will perform well in a normalizing world eco...
Although global manufacturing output growth ran at one of the fastest rates seen for over a decade in June, capacity constraints continued to develop, reflecting a lack of labour and a record worsening of supplier delivery times. The shortfall of payroll numbers to new orders was espe...
As the first half of 2021 comes to an end, the global economy is recovering strongly from its sharp decline last year caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Regional economic growth differences during the first half reflect differences in the spread of the pandemic and policy responses to i...
USTs maintain the global lead for outright yields. EUR curve dynamics have decoupled amid EU supply and a steady drumbeat of dovish comments from the ECB to ensure a calm summer. Country CPI data bears upside risks today, but nothing that the ECB wouldn't look through. For f...
The Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place: either it keeps inflating or the whole confidence-based valuation of financial assets collapses. Either it raises interest rates or the dollar collapses. The lessons from the past have taught us that central bankers only notice a b...
The global economy has reached an important milestone in the second quarter of 2021, surpassing the pre-pandemic real GDP peak attained in the fourth quarter of 2019. After a 3.5% contraction in 2020, global real GDP is projected to increase 6.0% in 2021, its strongest advance since 1...
Like a lot of parts of the global economy, housing/wood/material each saw a drop in both supply and demand given last year’s recession. Once beyond the commodity-induced price effects, it becomes clear the economy is settling back into the same disinflationary circumstances or ...