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With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...
The inflation fears led to concern that the Fed would raise interest rates by a full percent when they next meet and that in turn produced selling in stocks. Non-US stocks continue to struggle and that will probably be the case until the dollar comes back down. Economies are big c...
The US yield spread has inverted, and the 2-year yield is now higher than the 10-year yield. This phenomenon has been a well-known predictor of recessions. A yield spread inversion between the 10-year yield and 3-month yield has been a better predictor of recessions than the more popu...
With inflation running out of control and markets furiously attempting to re-price Federal Reserve interest rate policy, we’re seeing some truly wild moves in the fixed income markets. The bulk of the flattening in the 3m10y curve has occurred more recently. Prior to the cu...
At the heart of this market volatility is inflation uncertainty, which results in policy uncertainty. The U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”), once the leader of “team transitory” is shifting its strategy. The May CPI upside surprise, along with the University of ...
As of today, the percentage of inverted points on the yield curve reached the YTD highs seen in mid-June of 17.9%. Following the first inversion in at least one year when a recession did follow, it has taken an average of 271 trading days to officially enter a recession. The short...
We see a new era of volatile inflation and growth sweeping aside a period of moderation. We downgrade equities and upgrade credit in this new regime. U.S. jobs data last Friday reinforced the supply shock causing persistent inflation. Yields resumed their rise as markets priced higher...
The employment report released last Friday was better than expected, but the response by bulls and bears alike was exactly as expected. The employment report was indeed better than expected, the gain of 372k jobs well in excess of expectations of 240k. The bulls were quick to poin...
While bond yields have steadied in recent weeks, economic and financial conditions are still not supportive of bonds resuming their role as a hedge. Until inflation really slows, bonds remain as much a source of risk as a hedge. My view is yields either need to be moderately highe...
Since the Fed first implemented its “zero interest rate policy” in the wake of the financial crisis, investors have been left with a bond market landscape that presented many challenges from an income perspective. With the dynamic duo of inflation and a Fed tightening po...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...