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The 2-10 spread has been inverted for a while, and if the Fed is hell-bent on front-loading rate hikes this summer, the 3-month/10-year Treasury spread will invert soon. The Federal Reserve can cause a recession with rapid rate hikes in an economy that carries way too much financial l...
In the second quarter, we've seen double-digit negative returns across the fixed income landscape. For corporate bonds on the investment-grade side of things, we've seen spreads tick 160. A lot of what's going on right now is just the aftermath of a pandemic that's disrupted the h...
The VIX-yield curve cycle is a powerful economic phenomena that has persisted since at least the end of the 1980s. Recessions happen following periods of tight monetary policy, characterized by flat yield curves and high levels of equity volatility. Fed tightening is beginning to ...
The services side of the economy is considerably larger than the goods side and if it really is contracting at that rate, a recession is probably coming fairly soon. Investing is often a counterintuitive exercise and it is most counterintuitive – and hardest – at turning...
The current shape of the yield curve really does look like the bond market expects a recession to show up in the not-too-distant future. The compression in longer-dated maturities has been having a mostly positive effect on the stock market this week, particularly the growth-oriented ...
The coming recession: Deep or shallow? Markets pricing in rate cut in 2023. Overly optimistic? Will 2023 be the rebound year for bonds? The risk of recession grows as the U.S. Fed continues its war against inflation. Michael Craig, Head of Asset Allocation, TDAM ...
The Treasury yield curve is widely used as a first approximation of estimating recession risk. This is usually limited to one or two sets of maturities. Expanding the analysis across the yield curve also provides useful information about the business cycle. All models and indicato...
The markets don’t seem to be necessarily debating whether the U.S. economy will enter into a Fed-induced recession but rather just how shallow or deep any downturn may ultimately be. Yield curve may need to reveal a much more noteworthy inversion before signaling a recession co...
There has been a dramatic fall in Treasury yields in the past month and an equally dramatic fall in energy, metals, and agricultural commodities. The Ukraine situation holds many unknowns, as it is a major driver of financial markets and there is no end in sight as to when the fightin...
With prices rising 9.1% year-over-year and outpacing growth in wages, it may be like a recession for those who feel their purchasing power eroding. Thus far in 2022, employment growth has remained robust. With high inflation, it’s clear that consumers in the U.S. and many o...
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2024-07-01 14:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-21 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-01 06:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...