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The peak rates chatter refuses to go away – and there are good reasons for that. Emerging markets' central banks frontloaded a lot of rate hikes, and real policy rates adjusted by expected inflation are now very positive (maybe even contractionary) in quite a few EMs. The l...
Mexico is particularly well-placed to benefit from companies relocating their operations closer to their main destination markets (nearshoring). Companies relocating to Mexico in the five-year outlook, however, are still likely to face security-related risks, particularly road cargo t...
The recent natural gas price increase in the United States is inevitably spreading to Mexico's gas and power markets. Regardless of the supply mix, Mexico's power sector will continue to experience high power prices in the wholesale market likely hurting end consumers. The natural...
As we entered 2022, many emerging markets were already hurting due to higher commodity prices and rising interest rates; then a war in eastern Europe sent shock waves through the markets. The conflict in Ukraine likely bodes poorly for Eastern Europe more broadly, expanding beyond Rus...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent imposition of sanctions by a range of governments have served to reset the global geopolitical compass, with an immediate impact on oil and gas markets and investments. Elevated prices and new sources of demand will create opportuniti...
The US construction sector has outperformed Canada and Mexico over the past 18 months, but the headwinds facing the US are now intensifying. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act totals around $1.2tr of spending for the next five years. The fundamentals underpinning the Canad...
Although Mexico's economy did not grow in the second half of 2022, real GDP rebounded to 5.02% growth in the full year 2021. We expect, in the short term, that manufacturing activity will expand owing to strong growth in the US economy. Mexico's economy will continue to face downs...
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 2.5% in US-dollar terms last year. In contrast, the MSCI World Index gained 18.5%, helped by strong US returns. China’s 2021 woes stemmed from a combination of shrinking credit availability, acute debt in the property sector and restrictive ...
The main disruption for Latin American traders comes from increased shipping costs and long delays to products arriving at their destinations. Latin American exporters of fruit, meat, and other perishables were not critically affected by delays until mid-2021, with perishable goods sh...
The global central bank community has been wrong on inflation. Euro zone inflation rose to a new record high last month, defying expectations for a big drop and piling pressure on the European Central Bank to finally admit that price growth is not as temporary and benign as it has lon...