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This is a short version of Dr. Steinbock’s COVID-19 briefing on March 16, released as “The Global Coronavirus Contraction” by the World Financial Review (March/April) on March 23, 2020 Despite China's success in containment, the novel coronavirus is exploding in the US...
Financial markets were in a tailspin in February, particularly towards the end of the month, amid fears of economic stress stemming from the coronavirus outbreak. Ten-year government bond yields declined in several parts of the world, with those on the U.S. Treasury hitting a record low of 1.1...
By Robin Marshall, director, fixed income research G7 sovereign bond yields fell sharply in Q1, to all-time lows, as fixed income markets moved much faster than equity markets to discount a major economic shock, and possible recession, from the coronavirus contagion. Since early-March, how...
A number of factors lead us to think the outlook for emerging markets debt ((EMD)) is positive. Last year's performance was clearly above average (primarily driven by falling U.S. Treasury yields, rather than EMD risk premia compression). This year's overall balance of factors looks marginal...
Here's that iceberg that is drifting toward our economy's Titanic... and no, it ain't a virus, but it is our choice: Via: @Schuldensuehner Years of easy credit, easy money. The pile of debt from Baa to lower ratings is the real threat here, for its sustainability is heavily contingent on t...
By Scott DiMaggio, Eric Winograd Transcript: Scott DiMaggio: Forty-nine central banks reduced rates last year. I think it's very difficult for us to forecast forty-nine central banks reducing rates again in 2020. However, the monetary stimulus should still be there. The Fed wi...
The 10 year Treasury is at 1.47%. The 30 year Treasury bond is at an all time low yield of 1.92%. Just deal with it. Get over it. There ain't no yield in sight, and none is likely to show up anytime soon. The Fixed-Income markets have been flummoxed by the world's central banks and they n...
One topic of research that keeps popping up is the question of what the central bank objective function should be. In simpler terms, what is the target of the central bank? (At present, most central banks have an inflation target, possibly with secondary objectives.) This is a preoccupation of...
In a month filled with central bank decisions and notable political events, yields on 10-year benchmark bonds fell in January across sovereign bond markets. The biggest move came from Australia's 10-year note, whose mid-yield plunged 48.5 basis points to finish January at 0.91%. Despite the ec...
By Hemant Baijal, Head of Multi-Sector Portfolio Management, Global Debt Senior Portfolio Manager ; Meral Karasulu, PhD, Director of Fixed Income Research, Global Debt Team ; Claudia Castro, PhD, Director, Fixed Income Research ; Turgut Kisinbay, PhD, Director of Fixed Incom...