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Gold trades more like a currency than a commodity. To understand the price of gold, first, one needs to understand the true nature of its supply and demand dynamics. Because gold is immutable and has been used as money and a store of value for thousands of years, virtually nothing ever min...
As a start, let's look at how gold correlates with other markets. This helps us to better understand which driver is the most important for gold at the moment. Gold is a protective asset and, therefore, a fall or a rise of the stock market should have an effect on its value. But there is no ...
Our return from Thanksgiving break was certainly an interesting one. Right off the bat, we saw an almost 850-point drop in the Dow Jones from Black Friday until Tuesday as President Trump was quoted as saying that he saw the chances of a trade deal lessening. Markets were bailed out by a 4am a...
Gold has been correcting following last summer’s powerful bull-breakout upleg. Since peaking, gold has inexorably drifted lower in a well-defined downtrend. Traders are wondering when this necessary and healthy sentiment-rebalancing selloff will bottom, paving the way for gold’s ...
On December 3, the price of nearby March COMEX silver futures was trading at $17.215 per ounce, above the midpoint of its 2019 trading range. The prices of lead and zinc were waiting for the next shoe to drop in the trade war between the US and China. When it comes to the base metals that trad...
The basic idea behind the Quantity Theory of Money could be stated as: too much money supply is chasing too little goods supply, so prices rise. We have debunked this from several angles. For example, we can use a technique that every first year student in physics is expected to know. Dimensio...
By Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy & Wenyu Yao, Senior Commodities Strategist Crude oil - OPEC+ action needed The oil market is set to return to surplus over the first half of 2020, and so expectations are that prices will weaken over 1H20. We are currently f...
Contrary to most investors thinking that gold is primarily an inflation hedge, thinking about gold and its correlation to long-term equity returns, my own opinion is that gold is really a hedge for sub-par equity market returns, and gold and the GLD really adds "alpha" (so to speak) when long-...
Back in May, I was suggesting to my subscribers that we are likely bottoming and getting ready for the next rally in the metals complex. Then, in early June, I penned a public article entitled “ Strap Yourselves In - Gold May Take Off Like A Rocketship.” Then, in mid-August, I...
European central banks are slowly preparing for plan B: gold. Written by Jan Nieuwenhuijs, formerly known as Koos Jansen . It was long believed in the gold space that Western central banks are against gold, but things have changed, for quite some years now. Instead of discouraging...