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We have a healthy labor market, and it’s hard to have a recession when the labor market is on fire. If you go back to 1970, there’s been the same number of examples where an oil price spike year-over-year of 60% occurred that led to a recession, and the same number of ex...
Despite these changing circumstances, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve maintained interest rate suppression policies well into the supply-led inflation spike. The Fed’s guidance as to how it would unwind its balance sheet - at $95 billion per mont...
We're now in an environment today where returns have been challenged and volatility has been elevated. For investors, that can be a challenging period to operate in. Higher rates, although painful on the way up, have uncovered or introduced a bit more value in a market where value had...
Fixed income is the higher-quality segment of a portfolio. It’s the segment of the portfolio that generates a steady, consistent income stream. It’s also an area of the portfolio that helps protect against negative economic scenarios. At these higher yield levels now...
Earlier this week, the yield on the 30-year Treasury rose above 3% for the first time since April 2019 as the carnage in the bond market continues. The 30-year yield needs to climb another 5.5% just to get to the breakeven point with inflation. Given this inflationary environment,...
We prefer equities even as bond yields have sprinted higher. Global growth is still solid, and we see central banks ultimately living with inflation. U.S. 10-year yields hit new three-year highs last week, and stocks fell. The European Central Bank affirmed our view it will normalize ...
Picking interest rate bottoms and tops is far harder than trying to pick stock market bottoms and tops. While the mainstream financial media trumpets 7% – 8% inflation, the fact is the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.85% is telling us inflation is temporary, so either the bond mark...
It looks like the war will last quite a bit longer than investors originally expected. This causes problems for our inflation situation, which ironically may mean a more aggressive Fed interest rate policy. The Fed may not be able to do anything about supply chain issues, but it sure ...
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in an interview with the FT last week, said it is a “fantasy” to believe that the Fed can bring down inflation sufficiently without raising key interest rates to a level where they will constrain economic growth. The good news is th...
With bond yields near 0% across so much of the global bond market, it was becoming increasingly common to hear that “3% is the new 4%” withdrawal rate. If you want full inflation protection, I regret to inform you that you need to own longer & more inherently risky a...
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2024-06-22 02:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 11:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-02 03:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...