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Summary An all-time low in interest rates was reached when the Fed cut the fed funds rate to approximately zero in late 2008 in an effort to pull the economy out of the GFC. The Fed deemed the inflation “transitory,” it continued its policies of low-interest rates and quan...
Summary Senior Loans used to be a reliable, predictable source of income, even considered by some to be a money fund alternative. Not anymore. The state of the bond market, both from a credit and rate standpoint, has introduced uncertainty here that was always possible, but rarely seeme...
Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...
Summary The credit cycle and the economic cycle are excellent leading indicators of volatility. Both are likely to continue deteriorating in the months ahead. As such, expect high stock market volatility to be a mainstay for 2023. High Volatility Set To Continue Eq...
Summary Inflation continues to moderate, not only here, but also in Europe. Despite the negative economic reports and the reaction to the Fed rate hike, the US Dollar barely budged for the week. Value yet again outperformed Growth in the last week, this time by a spread of almost 1%...
Summary HYLD suffers from guilt by association. High yield a.k.a. junk bonds were decent relative performers in 2022. However, we encourage investors not to get too overconfident about junk debt heading into 2023. This is still a market segment that has yet to reckon with some r...
Summary We've witnessed such a quick and sharp correction in the stock market that the S&P 500 nearly moved from bear-market to bull-market in a matter of weeks. Nonetheless, there are still plenty of signs suggesting that this rapid move isn't going to last much longer, therefore w...
Summary Amid the crosscurrents, two themes have prevailed during the post-pandemic years, which lend some perspective to the macroeconomic roadmap ahead: namely, the bipolar swings in macro policy and the forces of economic normalization. After one of the worst years for fixed income as...
Summary Even now, a recession (in 2023) isn't a certainty, yet if there's one it will surely be (one of) the least surprising recessions in history. Be careful what you wish for: "Pivot" is not a magic word/stance that will automatically/quickly fix everything. Be careful what you i...
Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...
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2024-07-12 05:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 07:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 16:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...