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As a new credit cycle takes shape, BBB-rated corporate behavior is on our radar as it will be an important input of performance for investment grade credit this year. Overall, the cyclicality of the largest BBB sectors is not as concerning as at previous times in history. Delevera...
Diversification remains key. Flexible strategies can also take advantage of a more uncertain yield and spread environment. We continue to find reasonable opportunity in both public and private credit markets. We find value in non-agency mortgages and prefer cyclicals to growth sto...
Today's post rolls out the inaugural Risk Review column for the major asset classes, a monthly update that's the companion piece to the monthly performance report and risk-premia estimates. Risk analysis is a broad and deep subject and so this monthly update will be no one's idea of a...
There has been much commentary suggesting bonds have gotten overvalued due to historically low rates. At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly return to sub-2% growth by 2022. Are bonds overvalued? No. But stocks are, and the bond market is ringing alarm bells wa...
The bond market is partying like it's 1999, and there is no end in sight. Despite wide spreads and tight spreads, bonds still need to be bought by insurance companies, money managers, university endowments and other institutions that have ratings partially based upon their bond positi...
Gold mining stocks have seen surprising earnings and revenue growth in the last few quarters. Despite the surprising growth rates, the mining stocks have been trending lower. The VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF has been moving lower and a downward sloped trend channel has formed. ...
Higher yields have so far left the credit market largely unscathed, but they have changed the balance of opportunity. Against this year's early-cycle background, we anticipate further tailwinds for the lower-rated, more economically sensitive part of the credit market. Right now, ...
Fundamentals are in place for a major EM crisis, and I see reasonable probabilities of an unfolding crisis in Turkey providing the catalyst. Meanwhile, complacency in "developed" markets remains formidable. Is systemic crisis even possible while the major central banks are running ful...
Considering the major jump in volatility at the end of February, for our latest survey we sought an updated consensus over the managers' thoughts on the speed of economic recovery. Additionally, we asked what their inflation expectations going forward are, and whether higher rates in ...
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released Wednesday puts the year-over-year inflation rate at 1.68%. It is below the 3.76% average since the end of the Second World War and below its 10-year moving average, now at 1.73%. Our long-term inflation charts reach bac...
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2024-06-22 08:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-12 09:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-31 17:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...