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Summary At its September meeting, a hawkish Federal Reserve conveyed its resolve to bring inflation down. In our view, the most important adjustment was to the “dot-plot” estimates of future policy rates, which projected a fed funds rate at 4.25-4.50% by year-end. ...
Summary The Fed’s GDP growth forecast was lowered to just .2% in 2022 and 1.2% in 2023 and well below the 2.5% US GDP growth capacity estimate. The US 2 and 30-year Treasury yield curve inverted 58 bps, the most since 2000. If December 2022 ends this hiking cycle, follo...
Summary As expected, the FOMC increased the range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 3-3.25%. Powell went on to note that there were notable imbalances between supply and demand in many different commodity and service sectors that were contributing to inflation. ...
Summary Starting point: the traditional 60% equity and 40% bond portfolio. We explored the results of integrating 5% of Bitcoin into a traditional portfolio. One would expect the modified portfolio to indeed have higher returns, but also much higher risk levels. The result...
Summary As comments from heads of central banks go, yesterday’s press conference was relatively lucid. In the case of deciding when the bond market writ large bottoms and begins an extended rise, a fourth factor comes into play: investor sentiment. As yields rise and in...
Summary At the September meeting, Fed officials hiked the fed funds rate by 75 basis points and provided their most resolute messaging to date on their willingness to do whatever it takes to battle inflation. Given tighter financial conditions and a higher fed funds rate, we belie...
Summary The Fed was more hawkish, and the median dot sees a 125 bp increase in the target rate in Q4. The hawkish thrust was also evident in projecting that the target rate will remain higher for longer. The market still does not fully accept the Fed's message. The unemployment ra...
Summary The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered its third straight 75-bps rate hike on Wednesday. Based on the Fed's updated economic projections, the growth outlook is for a weaker economy over its projection horizon versus its June update. We know policy works with a lag, and inf...
Summary The Federal Reserve met expectations and hiked rates 75bp. With inflation proving to be far stickier than imagined, the Fed repeated that activity needs to slow much more with the door left wide open for a fourth consecutive 75bp hike in November. There is a strong clu...
Summary Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered another forceful message to markets that an early pivot back to rate cuts will not happen until inflation is under control. However, there is still an element of wishful thinking in the Fed’s forecasts and rhetoric that part...
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Tuesday that a prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy may be necess...
Iran launched a barrage of explosive drones and missiles towards Israel late on Saturday in its first direct attack on Israeli soil, prompting conc...
2024-04-12 09:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...