Previous 10 | Next 10 |
The first reports in December are in, and both were negative. Let's start with construction spending. Overall construction spending declined -0.8% in October. The more leading residential construction spending declined -0.9%, the second decline in a row (blue in the graph below): Figure 1...
Why we might worry about the PMI We all know what a PMI is - a purchasing managers index - and why we might be interested in it. It's one of our few forward looking measures of how the economy will do in the immediate to near future. However, we do need to be careful about how much weight ...
One potential consequence of an economy that is growing at a slow pace is the higher likelihood that reported economic data has a tendency to conflict with some of the other economic reports. An example of this is the report on manufacturing activity released on Monday. Both the Institute for ...
Before 2017, the highest price that lumber futures ever reached was $493.50 per 1,000 board feet in 1993. In late 2017, the price rose to a marginal new high at $500 and corrected down towards the $400 level. However, in 2018, the illiquid lumber futures market blew through the $500 level as a...
It was a huge sigh of relief, seen as confirmation of the word "transitory." Oil prices in late 2014 had crashed, and while globally monetary officials tried to reassure everyone it was a good thing, a supply glut giving consumers something like a tax cut, the wipeout was still unnerving. And ...
By Jill Mislinski The Philly Fed's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey is a monthly report for the Third Federal Reserve District, which covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. While it focuses exclusively on business in this district, this regional survey gives...
The price of copper hit its lowest level since late 2016 in early September when the price of the nearby COMEX futures contract fell to a low at $2.4675 per pound. The active month December contract found its bottom at $2.4820. The base metal that is often a barometer for the health and wellbe...
This morning saw one of the first looks at November activity with the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing report. Economists weren't expecting much of a strong report to begin with as the consensus forecast for the headline General Business Conditions index was for a reading of 6.0 vs. last month's re...
After the Markit PMI reading for the Services sector came in weaker than expected, investors were on edge that the ISM Services report fifteen minutes later would also miss expectations. Thankfully, the report didn't disappoint, as it rose from 52.6 (the lowest level since August 2016) up to 5...
By Robert Hughes The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI composite index remained below the neutral 50 level for the third consecutive month in October, rising to 48.3 from 47.8 in September (see top chart). For this index, 50 is neutral, with readings above 50 suggesting e...