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This is the week I highlight further information from last Friday's jobs report. One thing that struck me is that we've now had two months of declines in manufacturing jobs. This is something I have been anticipating since about the middle of last year, because the manufacturing workweek had...
After six straight months of contracting, U.S. manufacturing has bounced back based on the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index [PMI]. The current PMI is over 50 at a value of 50.9 in January 2020. A value over 50 indicates expansion. Notably, the PMI value was over 60 until fall of 2...
Copper is a bellwether industrial metal. The red metal is a critical ingredient when it comes to infrastructure building around the world. Economic growth in China, the world's most populous nation, is a dominant factor when it comes to the path of least resistance of the price of copper and o...
Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark yo...
Many market participants believe that copper is the commodity that diagnoses the health and wellbeing of the global economy. Copper is an industrial metal and a building block of infrastructure around the globe. These days, since China is the world's most populous nation with the second-lead...
On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Senior Portfolio Manager Megan Roach and Research Analyst Puneet Thiara discussed the initial trade deal between China and the U.S., recently released macroeconomic data and expectations for fourth-quarter earnings season. Highlights of t...
Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 7.9% in December 2019 compared to a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments . It was the 13th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest year-over-year decline since November 2009, during...
We have our first bits of forward-looking data for the year: November residential construction, December ISM manufacturing, and December light vehicle sales. They paint a decidedly mixed picture. Let's take a look in order. Residential construction spending improved by a strong 1.9% in Novem...
Auto sales in 2019 ended on a skid. Still, the year as a whole wasn't nearly as bad as many had feared. Last year got off on the wrong foot in the aftermath of 2018's landmine, with auto sales like consumer spending down pretty sharply to begin it. Spending did rebound in mid-year if only some...
By Robert Hughes The Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing NMI composite index rose to a reading of 55.0 from 53.9 in November. For this index, 50 is neutral, with readings above 50 suggesting expansion and readings below 50 suggesting contraction. Historically, readings above...