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By Jill Mislinski Note: The charts below have been updated with the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures price index from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The annualized rate of change is calculated to two decimal places for more precision in the side-by-side comparison with the Con...
In this article we will discuss the longer-term outlook for global interest rates and in particular longer-dated bond yields (NYSE: TLT ). The main purpose of this article is not to make any predictions over the short-term but serve as guidepost for potential shifts in deep secular trends th...
"You've always had the power to go back to Kansas." - the Good Witch of the East, to Dorothy, in The Wizard of Oz . (This is the conclusion of a two-part essay. For Part 1 click here .) Equipped with some historical background, we can now consider ways in which the Fed might ge...
The U.S. Treasury on Thursday will auction $12 billion in a reopening of CUSIP 9128287D6 , creating a 9-year, 8-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Security. This TIPS was created in an originating auction on July 18, with a real yield to maturity (at that time) of 0.282% and a resulting cou...
Henry Curr is the economics editor for The Economist magazine, and the author of a special report by the magazine on the phenomenon of low inflation now facing the global economy. Henry joins Macro Musings today to outline this report and the big questions surrounding low inflation. Dav...
The recent rise in Treasury yields has largely been a rising breakeven inflation story. Admittedly, it was not a large move, but the 10-year breakeven appears to have bounced off the 1.5% level. (The 10-year breakeven inflation rate is the nominal Treasury yield less the quoted yield on the ...
By Krishna Memani, Vice Chairman of Investments Last week the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points. Not much of a surprise there. Rate markets had been pricing in a cut with near certainty. In the press conference, Fed Chair Jay Powell emphasized that the Fed is unlikely t...
How much higher can bond yields go before equities are knocked off their perch? That's a question that's likely to be on the lips of many market participants in the weeks ahead assuming all signs continue to point to an interim trade agreement between the world's two largest economies. Ov...
Recently, a young man asked Vanguard founder and investing legend John C. Bogle for advice on how to position his portfolio . After listing a number of specific risks - ranging from income inequality to potential nuclear war - Bogle offered the following response (emphasis mine): You don...
The yield curve still seems to be following the bearish timeline. My axioms here are: 1) The true measure of inversion isn't a slope of zero. At the zero lower bound, it is a slope of a little more than 1% (10 year minus Fed Funds), which declines as the base yield rises. (At about 5%, meani...
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2024-06-22 15:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-12 02:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-02 07:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...