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Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. defense spending was already elevated for an environment without active conflict. Green or sustainable metals, such as copper, are poised to benefit as the backbone of the decarbonization story. The human suffering brought on by t...
If you are an investor and sell every time your perception of uncertainty rises, you will avoid risk, but you will also miss opportunities. Our heightened state of awareness about uncertainty has us focused on the negative outcomes, assuming the worst-case scenarios will be realized. ...
IYE invests in a collection of 37 large-cap U.S. energy stocks. Based on consensus estimates, the implied forward IRR over the next few years is tight. That is, unless you are comfortable with assuming stronger-than-expected earnings growth and/or an earnings multiple expansion. ...
Commodity markets remain vulnerable to Russia-Ukraine developments. Tightness in several commodities means that markets are likely to be more sensitive to any supply shocks. Tightness in energy and some agricultural commodities is set to persist for the foreseeable future. Disrupt...
Energy and commodity companies are largely paid in U.S. dollars. Portfolios that focus on inflationary growth sectors are benefiting from high prices for copper, crude oil, natural gas, fertilizer, lithium, and other higher commodity prices. The median new home sales price is now ...
Central banks are facing a growth-inflation trade-off. Hiking interest rates too much risks triggering a recession, while not tightening enough risks causing runaway inflation. The Fed has made it clear it is ready to dampen growth. Implication: We are neutral developed market (DM) equiti...
How similar will the next three or five years look from the years that immediately preceded the pandemic? And what are the implications for us as global equity investors? We don’t expect anything like the hyperinflation and stagflation we experienced in the 1970s; our outlook s...
Plunges in sentiment like we are seeing right now only go this far during a recession. People don’t need the government to tell them we are in a recession to start feeling like we are in a recession. The unprecedented mountain of consumer debt leaves us far less resilient to wi...
The economic news emanating from Britain and the European Union is continuing to come in weak, as many European countries are expected to slip into a recession this year. While inflation may be ebbing in China and the U.S., inflation is still accelerating in Britain and the rest of Eu...
Our rising price problem is, more than anything, a supply problem, and reducing demand is certainly one way to tackle it. But returning to the pre-COVID growth rate doesn’t mean we are headed to recession, that contraction is in our immediate future. US stocks and REITs wer...
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Despite OPEC and its allies’ (aka OPEC+) plans to raise their oil production output target beginning in February, rising demand for oil and natural gas in the recovering global economy should accelerate the performance of energy companies. Therefore, we think dividend-paying ETFs Energ...
With inflation now hitting record highs, we think it could be wise to bet on energy ETFs because the energy sector usually fares well in an inflationary environment. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (X...