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2024-07-27 03:00:00 ET Summary EM Bonds continue to outshine those in developed markets, thanks to positive political developments and a favorable rate environment. The second big development after politics in the second quarter was that US rates rallied. The decline in yields...
2024-07-26 14:10:00 ET Summary Separating signals from noise in the current geopolitical environment is probably harder than ever, but there may not be great information value for investors anyway. Market volatility traditionally rises in election years, but returns in the six mon...
2024-07-25 03:40:00 ET Summary Previous episodes of politically induced volatility have translated to important opportunities for alpha generation. EM countries should be less directly exposed to higher tariffs, given the significant growth in intra-EM trade. We do not believe...
2024-07-23 15:40:00 ET Summary Emerging market currencies have depreciated against the US dollar as interest rate differentials narrowed, despite stable economic growth projections. Interest rate differentials with the US are a key driver of exchange rates, leading to currency dep...
2024-07-18 14:50:00 ET Summary We are concerned that the U.S. Federal Reserve may wait too long to follow other major central banks in making its first cut. We think political and market volatility is likely to rise in the second half of the year, with the potential to persist wel...
2024-07-12 09:00:00 ET Summary Despite policy rate cuts remaining elusive, several tailwinds are boosting a resilient U.S. economy. While the Fed continues to navigate a potential soft landing, global central banks are actively transitioning onto a path of easing policy. While...
2024-07-10 07:30:00 ET Summary Growth differentials between EMs and developed markets are shifting in favor of EMs. Currently, the amount of outstanding bonds that have a positive ratings outlook vastly surpasses the amount of bonds with a negative ratings outlook. Frontier ma...
2024-07-03 07:15:00 ET Summary The US dollar has strengthened notably in 2024 with the shift in market expectations to higher US rates for longer. EMs’ buildup of official reserves and the evolution of EM debt to far higher issuance in local currencies are structural factor...
2024-06-30 08:00:00 ET Summary July brings new governments in the UK and France, a new European Commission, and China's Third Plenum session with expected measures to support the economy. The US policy mix stands out with loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy, contributing...
2024-06-28 07:15:00 ET Summary The US dollar is narrowly mixed as North American participants prepare to return for the last session of the first half. The large bourses, but India, rose in the Asia Pacific region. Benchmark 10-year yields are 1-4 bps higher in Europe, and the...