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On Wednesday, the US Fed offered its next iteration of low policy rates for longer, and longer, and longer with a promise that it would not hike for (at least) another three years in its effort to manufacture price inflation above 2%. The truth is, as we've already seen in places like Japan ...
By Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist History suggests waiting until a new president’s policies take shape hinders rather than helps long-term results. I was recently giving my usual spiel to clients about the importance of staying the course with their investments throu...
This should be a short post. When valuations are high, volatility is typically high as well. When interest rates are low, volatility also is high. Why? A situation has been set up by the functional equivalent of the "Wizard of Oz," where small changes to interest rates or economic activity wil...
My take on this is a bit different. I think businesses are anticipating a slowdown and cutting inventory ahead of it. Reported this morning with August Retail Sales is data on Inventory/Sales ratio from July. While a lagging indicator and not historically a good indicator of future economic ...
By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data come out with a lag, so we are now just getting a look at the July numbers. They do, however, help fill in some of the labor dynamics that are occurring within the economy as we adjust to the COVID-19 pa...
October is a historically volatile month (see October '08, October '87), and the VIX tends to peak in the month, "jumping to [a level of] more than 21... on average over the past 30 years" ( CNBC ), where we even get the so-called October effect or Mark Twain effect. And this October is a part...
It’s been a dramatic few weeks in the equity market, and retail investors are driving it, Roger Hirst told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing. Retail investors are trading small and often in an options-led equity exuberance, and as a result, the institutional whal...
By Michael J. Fleisher Value stocks have lagged growth stocks for some time, but the disparity has become particularly acute this year. Growth stocks have rebounded from their March lows, while value stocks generally remain below the breakeven point as measured by the Russell 1000 Growth a...
By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: A greener economy and a rise in small businesses may be a silver lining for long-term growth. It's back to school season, and that invariably reminds me of my own education and all that I enjoyed learning whe...
I have in the past forecast stock market returns using a formula that is, in fact, a tautology - which Webster defines as a statement that is true by virtue of its logical form alone. That formula is shown in the following picture. (Source: Target Date Solutions) My challenge in the past h...
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2024-07-17 07:15:00 ET Dividend stocks can be dual-threat vehicles, offering investors the best of both worlds. Specifically, these equities can act as reliable passive income generators while simultaneously possessing the potential to increase your net worth through share-price appreciatio...
2024-07-12 05:48:00 ET Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can be great for any investing style. Want growth? No problem. Are you a value investor? There are plenty of ETFs you'll probably like. Seeking income? You'll also have many ETFs from which to choose. Even if you desire exceptionally h...