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Three new forces are set to lift inflation beyond what markets are currently expecting in the years ahead, reversing a decade of subdued price rises. Market volatility has returned after months of steady advances in risk assets, and could stay elevated as the U.S. election draws near....
On Friday, due to the "quad-witching options expiration" (when all options contracts for the current strike month expire and rollover), the market gave up support at the 50-dma. The markets are very oversold short term, so a tradeable "bounce" remains very likely in the next few days....
In early-September, the S&P 500 Index began what now appears to be an abrupt risk-shedding event, centered on the high-flying growth and technology stocks. We don't pretend to know for certain whether the selloff is over, it'll continue or how much additional downside is in store....
Powell is struggling to reinforce flagging Federal Reserve credibility. In the 1960s, Alan Greenspan was said to have commented the Great Depression was a consequence of the Fed having repeatedly placed "Coins in the Fuse Box". Is all the hullabaloo really about consumer inflation...
The S&P 500 is on notice as the 50-day moving average has been breached and sentiment rolls over from bullish extremes. Given where some of the tactical indicators usually end up (down) during a correction, it looks like we could have further to go on this one. Meanwhile, ther...
We have a light economic calendar with important data on home sales, jobless claims, and durable goods orders. None of these is likely to stimulate higher heartbeats. I expect politics and the election to get plenty of attention in the financial media, especially with an open Supreme Court s...
All three major stock market indices completed three consecutive weeks of falling today as we head into fall next week. The NASDAQ, as you see in the opening graph, has set up a clear trend of perfectly aligned closings this week. This summary of the market in September - the bullseye for my...
On 16 September, the Federal Reserve surprised many observers by releasing new forward guidance on interest rates earlier than anticipated. This follows another earlier-than-expected release of its framework review conclusions during the Jackson Hole symposium last month (for details, see our ...
By Robert Hughes Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance totaled 860,000 for the week ending September 12, down 33,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised tally of 893,000 (see first chart). The latest week is the lowest level since the implementation of lockdowns in ...
On Wednesday, the US Fed offered its next iteration of low policy rates for longer, and longer, and longer with a promise that it would not hike for (at least) another three years in its effort to manufacture price inflation above 2%. The truth is, as we've already seen in places like Japan ...
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