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Government and Fed stimulus create volatility. But the business must navigate through it and replenish the shelves. Inventory management moves the markets. For further details see: The Inventory Cycle: Boring But Important Market Setter - Part 2
Last week’s inflation numbers apparently caught the Federal Reserve by surprise. Fortunately, the U.S. economy is booming. According to the Atlanta Fed, it is now growing at a 10.5% annual pace, despite last Friday’s flat retail sales report. Over 90% of the stocks i...
We see the recent inflation spike as temporary due to unique restart forces, but see inflation on the rise in the medium term. Both views keep us pro-risk. U.S. April inflation was much higher than expected. We have expected noisy inflation data over coming months amid unusual supply/...
New jobless claims declined 34,000 to 473,000. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined 26,286 to 487,436. The 4-week average of claims also declined by 28,250 to 534,000. At the peak of the pandemic lockdowns, new claims were running 6-7 million per week. Current claims re...
Global markets sell off. Long overdue or more to come? Will the threat of inflation continue to foil markets? Overvaluation vs. money looking for a home. Which force will win out? For further details see: Markets Sell Off On Inflation Fears: Overdue Pullback Or More Down...
JOLTS report for March confirmed that month’s stellar jobs report. Job openings made a new series high, while layoffs and discharges made a new series low. Hires, quits, and total separations all also moved in the right direction. Given the relatively subpar April employmen...
Our Consumer Price Index may show some inflation, but the Treasury markets certainly do not reflect it. We have had a casino mentality in the equity markets for some time now, but rolling the dice and spinning the wheel have consequences - and they are beginning to show up. The eq...
It would appear that we have hit the bottom of the range on the 10-year Treasury yields and are getting ready to move back to the top of the recent range for yields, which is now 1.77%. I think Treasury yields will rise this week with resulting implications for the stock market, which...
Long-term investors have nothing to fear. Nearly every major downturn has been followed by an opposite but equal upturn. Huge crashes always precede huge recoveries - and something just like that happened all over again in the last 13 months. The stock market went down way too fast fr...
Treasury Secretary Yellen is sticking to the Fed’s prediction that inflation will be “transitory.”. Wednesday’s ADP report created giddy expectations of one million or more total jobs created in April, counting all sectors, but the Labor Department reported...
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