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Investors see further Fed rate rises, but believe they will start moderating in size after September. Investors continue to see some risks to credit markets, with views that fundamentals will deteriorate and spreads will generally widen somewhat. There is uncertainty around when a...
If inflation and rate increases do not rise above current market expectations, however, there is a case for longer-duration instruments. Asset allocation models are well documented across the investment universe, and portfolio diversification is a widely accepted principle. Histor...
Inflation remains top of mind for investors and policymakers alike. Tighter monetary regimes and a rising risk of recession are typical hazards for corporate debt. Deglobalization may gather steam. By Scott DiMaggio, CFA & Gershon M. Distenfeld, CFA It's be...
Federal Reserve wants to hit the brakes, a 180-degree reversal from the recent two-year effort to turbo-stimulate the U.S. economy. USD's strength since early last year has defied a widening trade deficit, historic negative real interest rates, and growing anxiety that weaponizing the...
This year has seen significant volatility in credit markets given the tumultuous macroeconomic backdrop and hawkish Federal Reserve. Investment-grade bonds, bank loans, and high-yield bonds could perform differently now than in prior risk-off periods due to asset class-specific develo...
The expected risk premium continued sliding in April for the Global Markets Index (GMI). Tuesday’s revision reflects a drop to a 5.4% annualized increase for the long term – a relatively large cut of 40 basis points from last month’s estimate. The forecast ref...
In an era of low yields, generating income has been a challenge for many investors, with attractive yields limited to a narrow range of asset classes. That landscape has improved somewhat since early 2022, with inflation, geopolitical tensions and hawkish global monetary policies driv...
Recent events have just added an additional inflationary impulse into an already high-inflation environment. Europe is somewhat elevated relative to the past but well below what we see in the US. So really, from an investor’s standpoint, this high-yield opportunity in credi...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI...
As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...