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Summary China’s rebound is beating expectations right now. A prospect of China’s faster recovery did not go unnoticed by sell-side analysts. The pace of China’s rebound is an important driver for global commodity prices and commodity exporters. China's...
Summary Active fixed-income ETFs allow portfolio managers to stay nimble and avoid sectors and parts of the credit spectrum that might encounter increased stress. There are now a growing number of dividend ETFs that are focused on yield and offer responsiveness to evolving sector dynami...
Summary In 2022, historically high inflation led global central banks to make a series of bold tightening moves. In the U.S., it’s our view that inflation may gradually move toward the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% goal over the year. With a hamstrung Fed, the global outl...
Summary Expectations for a full-fledged economic regime change may be overblown, but shifts in liquidity, globalization, climate change, and security could accelerate investment in innovation. Economic growth may slow in 2023, but the relative strength of labor, leverage, and liquidity ...
Summary In our view, the balance of demand and supply factors should support oil prices in 2023. Most EM banking systems look better positioned in terms of capital than they were during the Global Financial Crisis. All things considered, we continue to believe that current valuation...
Summary The recent accelerated reopening following COVID lockdowns could provide a dramatic boost to the Chinese economy and risk assets this year. Challenges related to COVID and the housing sector could persist into 2023. China has become a slower-growth and more policy-directed e...
Summary China’s emergence from COVID lockdowns could trigger a cyclical upswing, benefiting real estate and convertible bonds. Pent-up demand, supported by high excess savings, will likely drive a major surge in consumption during the initial recovery period. We believe there...
Summary Financial markets offered few opportunities for refuge in 2022, and emerging-market bonds were no exception. We expect the past year’s difficult conditions to gradually unwind in 2023, but risks remain. Investors will need to be selective. By Christian DiC...
Summary It will be a busy week filled with a wide range of economic indicators, lots of Fed speak, and earnings season heats up. The run-up to the February ECB meeting is going to bring immense focus on incoming data and central bank speak. So it turns out the UK may have just about...
Summary In an economic downturn, higher-growth EM stocks that have derated and have strong and stable earnings could outperform, in our opinion. In China, we are cautiously positive on possible policy changes ahead and early signs of a roadmap out of zero-COVID. In India, we are con...