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The Fed will be raising interest rates again soon, and of course, the question is whether the central bank will raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.75 or 1.00 percent. As if the issues in China weren’t enough, the festering Ukraine war-related energy-related issues in Europe could be...
China’s Q2 GDP was weaker than expected, but higher-frequency data shows a rebound. Can China close the gap between the growth forecast and the official target with the same approach to policy stimulus? The question is whether the prospective Q3 rebound (fingers crossed) wo...
Financial markets remained turbulent through Q2 of 2022 as inflationary pressures, interest rate hikes, & ongoing war in Ukraine weighed on investor sentiment, & we've come to accept that the future will likely look different from the past. We now expect U.S. inflation to peak...
Equities would suffer if rate hikes trigger a growth downturn. Europe has the opportunity to create a more sustainable and more resilient version of itself – replacing high dependencies on Russian energy and shedding the image of an “old” economy by accelerating t...
One of the vexing questions for China watchers has been the lack of stimulus delivered, despite the maintenance of the government’s 5.5% GDP target for 2022 (although there is skepticism around the ability to reach that 5.5%). One of the big challenges China faces relative to S...
Last quarter, the Asset Allocation Committee adopted an underweight view on global equities and leaned more heavily into cash, commodities and other alternative, diversifying assets. The Committee’s views on real and alternative assets are unchanged this quarter. The Asset ...
The government had urged banks to lend to businesses. And the guidance proved to be successful as data shows that loan growth jumped in June. The mid- to long-term household loans were likely for mortgages, as home sales increased in the month. We believe that the People's Bank of...
China’s credit aggregates signal that the stimulus is real and bringing results. The negative differential between government bond yields in China and the U.S. narrowed a bit lately and can decline further if the current growth trends persist. Low inflation in China helped ...
Chinese stocks have been staging a comeback that contrasts with market declines in most of the world. While a zero-COVID policy has weighed on the economy, a renewed focus on growth could provide fuel for equities, particularly in industries set to benefit from fiscal spending and gre...
Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs show a strong recovery of the Chinese economy. The main challenges remain the technology war with the US and its allies and a fragile export recovery due to Covid-19 in the Western world. Though there was a rebound in new export orders...