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During the last Fed rate raising cycle, it took the Federal Reserve five years to raise the fed funds rate to 2.50%. The Fed kept rates far too low for far too long and now we are dealing with the consequences. Both fiscal and monetary policy have been highly inflationary, and we are ...
Consumers continue to spend at a healthy pace. But will it last? Will consumer discretionary stocks get more love this year? Kim Parlee speaks to Jacky He, Global Consumer Discretionary Analyst, TD Asset Management, about the health of the consumer. For further details see: ...
We don’t see a wage-price spiral. Companies are actually paying less in labor per unit of output, we find. We think wages can rise more without adding to inflation. The S&P 500 plunged to new 2022 lows last week. We remain overweight equities in the inflationary backdrop bu...
Inflation and rising interest rates create an uphill journey for the consumer and the economy. Rising treasury yields, elevated inflation and slowing real economic growth are factors being watched by both equity and fixed income investors. Year-to-date, equity market volatility sp...
Only one major asset was up last week: REITs. There were some negative developments that might explain the selling. With the drop in commodities and fears about the impact of the China slowdown, the immediate effect should be for inflation and growth expectations to moderate. We didn&...
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, in an interview with the FT last week, said it is a “fantasy” to believe that the Fed can bring down inflation sufficiently without raising key interest rates to a level where they will constrain economic growth. The good news is th...
Retail sales and food-services spending rose 0.5 percent in March following a 0.8 percent gain in February. In real terms, total retail sales were down 0.7 percent (adjusted using the CPI). Categories were mostly higher for the month with ten up and three down in March. The gains ...
Bonds are hated right now and people want to believe yields will only go higher from here. Whether or not a recession will eventuate is not yet clear, but a material slowdown in growth is certainly what the leading indicators of the growth cycle are pointing to. The current inflat...
AIER’s Leading Indicators Index partially rebounded in March, posting an 8-point rise following a 17-point drop in February and a 13-point gain in January. The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show the total number of job opening...
Typically, we look at net new highs as a way to confirm moves in the broader market. At the high last Wednesday, over 90% of S&P 500’s new highs came from defensive sectors. In other words, defensives have been a notable pocket of strength recently. For further de...
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2024-07-12 19:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-22 22:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-22 08:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...