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2023-05-20 08:26:00 ET Summary Investor risk aversion peaked at the end of last year. Headline consumer prices and government bond yields peaked in June and October of 2022, respectively. The US currency and broader financial conditions have eased in the same time frame. ...
2023-05-18 03:59:00 ET Summary There has been a lot of discussion in the media about whether the U.S. Federal Reserve can pull off a so-called soft-landing - cooling inflationary pressures without significantly hurting economic growth. The significantly restrictive monetary p...
2023-05-17 01:40:00 ET Summary We got two big data points on May 16th on the economy and both pointed to sluggish trends in growth. Retail sales and industrial production have a strong correlation with weak economic growth and both came in unusually weak last month. Industrial...
2023-05-17 00:55:00 ET Summary You know trading is dull when stock traders talk about the bond market. But that’s where the action is these days. In Texas, the Austin area has been hit hard as the layoffs in the tech sector have extended there. From a trading standpoint...
2023-05-16 11:45:00 ET Summary With increasing economic uncertainty and market volatility in the first quarter of 2023, the probability of a mild recession beginning in the second half of the year or early next continues to rise. Global supply chain disruptions stemming from the C...
2023-05-16 00:45:00 ET Summary The potential end to Fed rate increases may not be enough to cause dollar depreciation in the medium term. With market participants now pricing the end of the Federal Reserve’s hiking cycle, some commentators have suggested that this is reason...
2023-05-15 18:33:00 ET Summary Right now, the two-year total return of a 60/40 portfolio (60% S&P 500, 40% aggregate bond) is -1.24%. If you expand the 60/40 to a Vanguard Total Stock/Vanguard Total Bond mix, you actually did even worse at -3.7%. TBills have, over the long...
2023-05-15 01:30:00 ET Summary Bonds and stocks rallied immediately on the release of CPI data. Chinese stock weakness was broad-based. China's housing sector appears poised to provide the biggest disappointment. Two-year Treasury yields traded at 4.06% Wednesday, ju...
2023-05-13 09:13:00 ET Summary The shortest pauses in a 30-year period were the six months time-out in 1995 and the eight month wait-and-see in 2019. The pause periods that began in 1997 and 2006, by contrast, lasted more than a year. When the Greenspan Fed began raising rates...
2023-05-13 07:40:00 ET Summary We don't rule out further problems arising in some of these smaller US banks but expect larger banks to be able to weather the storm. If a government shutdown and default look likely, the impact on financial markets, consumers and businesses would be...
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2024-05-02 16:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-12 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-24 00:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...