First Negative S&P 500 Signals As Mega Tech Breaks Down From October Highs

2026-02-04 12:03:57 ET

Introduction

This article serves as a brief January recap and a forecast into February. Some records were set in January that may be the first to have ever happened in my lifetime. As February begins we have some precarious conditions:

• S&P 500 Momentum Gauge signals have turned negative for both daily and weekly signals.
• The Market Momentum Gauges have reached the highest negative values since November after being positive into January.
• Gold saw the largest one day percentage decline on Friday of approximately -11.4% putting it among the largest declines in over four decades back to the 1980s. The decline was potentially larger than the 1983 decline with an intraday move of -13%. I cannot confirm as exact percentages vary.
• The Technology sector gauges are negative on the daily, weekly, and monthly gauge signals as the largest and most important bellwether market sector.
• A new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has been selected to replace Jerome Powell in May. Changes in Fed Chairs have historically averaged large market declines in the following weeks.

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