REIT Earnings Recap: No Tariff Trouble

2025-05-13 09:00:00 ET

Summary

• Over 200 U.S. REITs and homebuilders reported first-quarter earnings results over the past four weeks, providing critical information on the state of the commercial and residential real estate industry.
• Of the 105 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 28% raised their outlook, 63% maintained their outlook, while 9% lowered their FFO target, effectively spot-on with our pre-season forecast.
• Technology REITs were the notable upside standouts, with all three Data Center REITs and two of the three Cell Tower REITs raising their full-year FFO outlook, citing surprisingly solid demand.
• Results from Residential REITs were surprisingly solid, with single-family rental and apartment REITs confirming that rent growth has reaccelerated slightly in early 2025 after two years of sluggish trends.
• Hotel REITs were responsible for 7 of the 9 downward guidance cuts this earnings season - all relatively modest downside revisions. Cold Storage and Lab Space REITs accounted for the other two downside revisions.

REIT Earnings Scorecard

Over 200 U.S. REITs and homebuilders have reported first-quarter earnings results over the past four weeks, providing critical information on the state of the commercial and residential real estate industry. In this report, we provide the earnings "scorecard" for the REIT sector at large, and for each of the 20 individual real estate property sectors, highlighting the upside and downside guidance revisions across each, along with the single top-performer and worst-performer of each sector. In our subsequent Winners & Losers report, we'll provide additional commentary that will discuss the upside and downside surprises. Of the 105 equity REITs that provide full-year FFO guidance, 28% raised their outlook, 63% maintained their outlook, while 9% lowered their 2025 FFO target, effectively spot-on with our pre-season forecast and roughly in-line with the typical first-quarter average. Of the 38 REITs that altered their outlook, 76% were upside revisions, while 24% were downside revisions. By comparison, FactSet reports that among the 261 S&P 500 constituents that provided full-year Earnings Per Share ("EPS") guidance, 45% raised their full-year outlook, while 55% downwardly revised their full-year EPS outlook....

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