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I did not think we would see a fresh new high in the stock market before a trade deal with China was consummated. The moral here is to never underestimate the ability of the Twitter account of the U.S. President to create a short squeeze in stocks, particularly if the Federal Reserve has alrea...
By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC's decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decid...
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) reached new heights in the third week of June 2019 as the U.S. Federal Reserve has signaled it would soon begin slashing its Federal Funds Rate, lifted by the prospects the Fed may implement as many as four rate cuts happening between between the present and th...
This week’s economic calendar is important, including reports on personal income and spending, consumer confidence, and the Fed’s favorite inflation indicators. Despite this, the punditry will be looking toward the week’s end and news from the G20 meetings. Naturally, we c...
We made a new high on Thursday. (Yay!) What does it mean for the future direction of stock prices? If you're an optimist, it means that there are clear skies ahead and there's no telling how much higher this market will go. Pedal to the metal with your equity exposure. If you're a pessimist,...
The market may be reaching all-time highs today, but sentiment is hardly reflective of that. The AAII weekly sentiment survey continues to see modest improvements in bullish sentiment as it rose 2.7% this week to 29.51%, returning it to its normal range (less than 1 standard deviation from t...
Stan Druckenmiller recently gave a wide-ranging interview at the Economic Club of New York. One of the insights he shared that I found most valuable was this: The quote continues: By far the best economic predictor I've ever met is the inside of the stock market. I don't mean the stock ma...
US economic growth has slowed recently, and several key economic indicators are painting a mixed profile about the near-term outlook. The modestly wobbly numbers of late have convinced some analysts to warn that a recession is near. Perhaps, but the data overall still align with a moderate exp...
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump The Federal Reserve is expected to meet Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Financial markets have melted up in advance of that meeting. In afternoon trading Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DIA ) was up nearly 40...
By Yogesh Modak Differences at the Heart of the Negotiations From optimism on a deal in April to new tariffs enforced in May, it seems much has changed in the U.S.-China trade dispute in a short time. It’s fair to ask, what went wrong? Were they as close as they intimated? I spent...