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About four months ago – a few days after the yield curve inverted for the first time – I published my article “ US Stock Market: Recession Ahead? ”. Since the article was published, the S&P 500 ( SPY ) increased more than 5% and is mocking the thesis that the ec...
With less than three weeks before the government publishes its preliminary estimate of second-quarter economic data, revised nowcasts have trimmed expectations for US output. Today's estimate calls for a substantial slowdown in Q2 growth, based on a set of projections compiled by The Capital S...
By Frank Shostak After closing at 735 in February 2009, the S&P 500 has been following a relentless uptrend, closing at the end of June this year at 2941.76 - an increase of 300% since February 2009. The increase in the US stock market this year appears to defy the visible softening ...
With June now officially in the books, we can take a look at our long-term monthly indicators to see what they are telling us now. Does the recent breakout to "all-time highs" mean the bull market is finally back? Or, is this breakout doomed to failure as the previous breakouts have been? ...
Why do we care? The general description of the business cycle is that the economy expands until everyone who can be - or wishes to be - employed is. At which point, wages start to rise significantly. But we also, at the same time, get inflation, meaning that the Federal Reserve will raise in...
I must admit that it is somewhat hard to believe that a month has passed since May's disappointing jobs report and therefore the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released yet another report , this time for the month of June. In this case, we saw almost a complete reversal from last month's di...
First, a decline in manufacturing, and then a slump in service industries, now a broad-spectrum inversion of the yield curve hitting its most critical metric this week, unemployment finally starting to rise again, a one-year relentless housing decline across most of the nation and the world, c...
The market is making new all-time highs. Is this the final "Melt-Up" I've been anticipating? Or is it something more sustainable? Bull Case versus Bear Case The bulls have once again taken control of the direction of the market. Three new highs last week. We have to respect the determina...