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The market is making new all-time highs. Is this the final "Melt-Up" I've been anticipating? Or is it something more sustainable? Bull Case versus Bear Case The bulls have once again taken control of the direction of the market. Three new highs last week. We have to respect the determina...
Despite a stronger-than-expected June gain of 191K private nonfarm payrolls (+191K vs. +150K), private sector jobs growth - when measured over multi-month periods - has slowed from a December 2018 high of 2.3% to now as low as 1%. That's the weakest growth in over 8 years, but it's nothing to ...
Wall Street's fervent hopes and prayers for rate-cut ammo were not fulfilled. Wall Street, clamoring for three to four rate cuts this year, was hoping and praying fervently for a lousy jobs report that would "force" the Fed to cut rates. Those hopes and prayers were not fulfilled when the ...
It's never about a single payroll report. Even still, there's something significant in how the "good" ones aren't measuring up the way they used to. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics ((BLS)), the US economy gained 224k payrolls in the month of June 2019. Well above consensus, the hea...
By Robert Hughes The labor market rebounded in June. U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 224,000 jobs in June after an increase of just 72,000 new jobs in May. The modest May gain was revised down 3,000 from an initial estimate of 75,000 jobs. Combining the last two months with an 8,000 downward r...
By Daniel Poppe Job growth is coming in below expectations. That's the story being told by new data reported by The Wall Street Journal . In June, the U.S. private sector gained 102,000 nonfarm jobs, according to the ADP National Employment Report put out by the ADP Research Institute a...
Let's look at the bullish economic argument. As signs of weaker growth increased in 4Q18 and 1Q19, central banks became more dovish. Indian, Australian, and Russian rates are all lower; the Fed and BOE have signaled a more dovish tone. This rallied equity markets, which bolstered sentiment...
Originally published on June 30, 2019 One of my big themes this year is that low gas prices can hide a multitude of economic sins. This morning's data on personal income and spending confirms that the consumer side of the economic ledger is doing OK. Nominal personal income rose +0.4%, a...
Source: Pexels That Nagging Overhead Resistance... The week before last, on Thursday, June 20, the S&P 500 ran into a cement wall of Overhead Resistance, established just above the 2950 level - which was also the level where it encountered a brick wall in early May. Last week - and s...
This is a follow-up article to " Estimating Forward 10-Year Stock Market Returns using the Shiller CAPE Ratio and its 35-Year Moving Average ," which is referred to as the “referenced article” further down. Over the last 10 years, since March 2009, the S&P 500 with dividend...