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The December JOLTS report came out this morning, and it continues the streak of confusing employment data. To recapitulate, the JOLTS report decomposes the jobs numbers into openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations. Since the series is only 20 years old, however,...
Overnight news that showed the number of confirmed coronavirus cases has spiked sent a negative tone rolling through markets today, but generally speaking, sentiment surrounding the issue has improved, which has been reflected in higher prices for risk assets. Given this, the percentage of res...
The BCI at 262.1 is up from last week's downward revised 260.4, and for this business cycle is at a new high indicated by the BCIp of 100. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.7 is above last week’s 9.4. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to ...
I have written about the value of the Hindenburg Omen as a technical stock market signal several times over the past few years. To summarize, while an individual signal has very little value in forecasting a stock market crash, as some seem to suggest, a cluster of signals can be valuable in...
In Tuesday's release of the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), job openings declined 364,000 to 6.4 million. This is a decline in openings from a high level of 7.6 million reached in November 2018. The blue line in the below chart represents hires in December, and this line continu...
Trend following in stock and index prices has a long and well-established history. I reviewed some of the background in a past article on this topic. For additional examples, see this article . As explained in these pieces, trend following is all about separating the low-frequency persisten...
When's the Fed going to kill the expansion? Given that it's all so long ago, it's a bit of a struggle to remember what actually causes most recessions. That being that the Federal Reserve deliberately creates them. The reason it's so long ago is that we're at the end of a decade and more o...
Some inflation is good and necessary to keep the economy moving. Good inflation is just enough money supply to keep the economy growing at an acceptable pace, which in the U.S. is about 3% annual growth in Gross Domestic Product ((GDP)). If the economy slows down, the Fed can stimulate by ...
In a nutshell, I'd say about 12-15 months forward and the data can be sparse beyond 12 months. Much was learned from the Q4 '18 correction, which will be discussed in a minute, but for now let's cover the S&P 500 earnings data from this weekend: S&P 500 Earnings (by the numbers):...
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NEW YORK , Aug. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Direxion continually reviews its product range to ensure it's meeting the needs of our clients. Based upon a recent review, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close 15 ETFs (each, a "Fund" and c...