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"Inflation is taxation without legislation." – Milton Friedman On February 13, the most recent inflation numbers were released, and we started to see the effect of the coronavirus on prices. A sharp drop in demand for global oil consumption led to much lower energy prices, which led...
US economic activity is expected to ease in the first quarter, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator . The current estimate reflects the softest quarterly gain in over a year, although the anticipated increase is still strong enough to keep the economic...
The U.S. Federal Reserve has something of a love-hate relationship with its latest liquidity injection policy. The Fed keeps having to supply money markets with more and more liquidity, which has contributed to boosting the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) to four new record highs in the last we...
These used to be the Top 10 names by market cap in the S&P 500. Procter & Gamble (PG) and Visa (V) have ascended to the Top 10, Bank of America (BAC) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) have dropped out. Procter & Gamble is not in this list but is found below. (PG is not owned for clients, and n...
Here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1) Is there another stock market bubble? Over the course of the last 6 or 7 years, I have consistently shot down the idea that there is a stock market bubble (see here and here for example). My view of a bubble is pretty simple. It is...
The S&P 500 earnings yield has retreated again down to close to 5% at 5.20%. This level is always worrisome. Here is the article from last December 2019 on the low S&P 500 earnings yield. ----- S&P 500 Earnings data (format revised): Fwd 4-qtr est: $175.75 vs. la...
In September 2017, when the Trump Administration began promoting the idea of tax cut legislation, I wrote a series of articles discussing the fallacy that tax cuts would lead to higher tax collections, and a reduction in the deficit. To wit: "Given today's record-high levels of de...
Introduction The past year has seen gold start 2019 at sub $1300/Oz and it closed the year at around $1525/Oz, registering an increase of 17%. Overall, it wasn't a bad year for Gold Bugs so we can now turn our attention to 2020 which has kicked off in rather lackluster manner as the chart ...
The December JOLTS report came out this morning, and it continues the streak of confusing employment data. To recapitulate, the JOLTS report decomposes the jobs numbers into openings, hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, and total separations. Since the series is only 20 years old, however,...
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NEW YORK , Aug. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Direxion continually reviews its product range to ensure it's meeting the needs of our clients. Based upon a recent review, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close 15 ETFs (each, a "Fund" and c...