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The coronavirus recession The big question is no longer whether we're going to have a coronavirus recession, it's how long is it going to be - for it's most certainly going to be deep. We can argue about whether this is all unnecessary - I think so, I think the political reaction has been ...
By Talley Léger Heading into 2020, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing and risk assets were benefiting from the cyclical rebound in activity. In recent months, however, the coronavirus has delivered a significant external shock to Chinese and global economic acti...
As I write this post, I am hunkered down in the Kort family bunker, deep below the towering McMansions of Leawood, Kansas. Present are my wife, daughter and granddaughter and a fair supply of provisions, including toilet paper. We are some of the lucky ones. My tongue-in-cheek intro does abs...
The S&P 500 "earnings yield" jumped to 7.49% this week, with the 15% decline in the S&P 500. Trouble is, the current consensus probably can't be taken seriously. Coca-Cola (KO) came out Thursday night and said that their guidance in late January-early February 2020 has been complet...
We've been keeping track of state jobless claim filings around the country as they've been reported in the media, and the numbers are grim. Based on a wide range of states that have reported just a couple of days' worth of statistics, filings look to be just shy of 1 million for the week (due ...
On 3/10/2020, I published 13 specific predictions for how the COVID-19 pandemic would unfold . These have been my guide to fundamental analysis. I promised to update these predictions via Bayesian inference as new information became available. In the lingo of Bayes, I am updating toward ...
The published data suggest moderate growth remains intact, but the rearview mirror has rarely been so meaningless for assessing the likely path of the economic trend in the months ahead. As the coronavirus blowback spreads, the US economy is slowing, and in many sectors grinding to a halt. The...
Screaming a buy…. This is an update to the S&P 500 Value Investor Index and the correlations to Insider Buying Signals. The S&P 500 Value Investor Index ((VII)) derives its name from the high correlation with increases in Insider Buying which are deemed the most informed of ...
Your portfolio is not going to $0.00 (That is, unless you are a gun-slinging day trader who only buys penny stocks.) For the rest of us responsible investors, I'm here to tell you that this too shall pass. It's just a matter of how long it will take and how much time you have to ride out the...
Forget that the major US stock indices eked out a small gain last week. All that most investors will remember is a wild week that took their portfolios on a harrowing roller coaster ride - one that prompted a respected financial television anchor, Jonathan Ferro, to remind his viewers that the...
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NEW YORK , Aug. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Direxion continually reviews its product range to ensure it's meeting the needs of our clients. Based upon a recent review, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close 15 ETFs (each, a "Fund" and c...