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Given the big rally off the lows of late March, we've had a number of questions related to the VIX and why it remains high. As of Tuesday afternoon, the VIX was in the mid-40s, which is very high relative to readings over the last decade but actually down significantly from its recent highs ab...
This article is based on an economic forecast webinar . The United States is in recession now, the sharpest decline in our nation's history. (We don't have sufficient data from the 1700s and 1800s to verify that, but it seems quite probable.) The most likely path is a V that turns l...
I’m writing this after market close and the S&P 500 ( SPY ) and the Dow (DJI) are up 7%-8% again. It is quite the bear rally from the lows in March. I’m watching Twitter, talking to other investors, listening to CNBC, lots of investment podcasts, and of course, reading the fi...
Economic Composite I updated my economic composite to reflect the release of the U.S. Labor Department's employment report on April 3. The report showed a decline in nonfarm employment of 701,000 in March. The number was far weaker than the consensus estimate of a loss of 100,000. Preliminar...
I'll be frank. I'm not a big fan on sentiment data analysis. I do find that a contrarian approach can be very helpful, but too often market participants tend to look for data that can be spun to formulate a "smarter than thou" outlook. Sentiment data, in particular, tends to be interpreted to ...
Picking up the action from last Thursday, 2 April 2020, we find that expectations for future dividends in the S&P 500 ( SPX ) continue to deteriorate through the end of 2020. The futures data is suggesting that while dividend reductions have begun to be announ...
A Simple And Timeless Way To Trade The S&P 500 Successfully was first published by Seeking Alpha seven years ago. It proposes a simple strategy: buy the SPX 500 when it breaks above its 300-day SMA average (the red line in the linked chart), and sell when it goes below it. For ou...
By Talley Léger, Senior Investment Strategist 1. Has the S&P 500 Index ever had a better 5-day rally as of Monday's close? What have such rallies meant for US equities in the near and long term? Yes, the best 5-day rally occurred at the end of 2008, a few months before the S...
One of the vagaries of following the IBES earnings data is that every April 1st we get the latest addition to the earnings calendar which in this case is the first look at the 2020 calendar S&P 500 estimate. First, the actual S&P 500 EPS print for 2019 as of April was $162.93. If w...
By Jill Mislinski April 3 morning's release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index ((WLI)) at 106.0, down 7.0 from the previous week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at -26.9, down 11.4 from last week and its lowest since the last recession. The ECRI Indic...
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NEW YORK , Aug. 28, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Direxion continually reviews its product range to ensure it's meeting the needs of our clients. Based upon a recent review, the Board of Trustees of the Direxion Shares ETF Trust has decided to liquidate and close 15 ETFs (each, a "Fund" and c...