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Summary While it’s been a tough year, the Federal Reserve has done investors an enormous favor in terms of the attractiveness of a wide swath of fixed-income asset classes that today look a lot more attractive than a year ago. Jay Powell and the FOMC did raise the Fed funds rate ...
Summary Expectations surrounding central bank policy, China’s gradual reopening and a lower US dollar are key to investor sentiment in the final stretch of 2022. Central banks have increased interest rates at the fastest rate on record, and there are signs that higher yields are ...
Summary The era of cheap money and low inflation is over. We see an opportune time for active equity managers to shine. We believe the recent correction is more than just another crank of the economic cycle. Not all earnings are created equal. We find the gap between companies...
Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...
Summary After rallying 9% off the October 12 bottom, the market pulled back last week but still sits 5.4% above the low point. Commodities are trouncing all other major asset classes on a YTD basis, largely due to the rise in oil, natural gas, and agricultural prices. The newe...
Summary We see central banks on a path to overtighten policy. Their balance sheet reductions up selling pressure on government bonds, so we’re underweight. We think rates will - and may already have - hit levels that make recessions foretold. That isn’t yet reflected...
Summary Business investment and employment look set to also deteriorate amid the drop in confidence and signs of excess capacity developing. The US economic downturn gathered significant momentum in October, according to the flash S&P Global PMI data. A further uncertainty...
Summary The recession we see from Federal Reserve rate hikes eclipses any impact from U.S. midterm elections. We stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. Yields rose and stocks rallied off lows as markets mulled the scope of central bank rate hikes amid a “whatever it...
Summary How far will policy rates need to go to tame inflation and is a recession imminent? Until central banks see a significant decline in wage growth, they’re likely to keep conditions tighter for longer. There’s evidence that conditions may continue to suppor...
Summary Global GDP growth is still expected to be positive in 2022 (excluding Russia) but is expected to fall fairly dramatically in 2023. The U.S. Q3 2022 earnings season has just begun, and the outlook is for lower but still positive revenue and earnings growth. Inflation wi...