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Summary After enduring one of the worst years on record across asset classes, investors should find more cause for optimism in 2023, even as the global economy faces challenges. Inflation is likely to moderate, and risks to the inflation outlook appear more balanced than they did severa...
Summary As expected, despite an overhang of risk from the pandemic, global banking sectors again avoided major crises in 2022. The combination of higher interest rates, tighter liquidity conditions, and risk aversion against a background of weaker global economic growth will slow credit...
Summary On a coincident basis, driven by a historically tight labour market and robust industrial production growth, the US economy remains deceptively strong despite negative real incomes and tight financial conditions. However, the leading indicators of the business cycle continue to ...
Summary Recession foretold in developed markets (DM), a pause in central bank rate hikes and China’s reopening help shape 2023 and reinforce our tactical views. European equities led DM stocks higher. Surprisingly weak U.S. services data spurred bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts...
Summary Global business activity fell for a fifth consecutive month in December, with the rate of decline moderating slightly amid improved supply conditions but still rounding off the worst quarter since 2009 barring lockdown months. At 48.2 in December, the Global PMI - compiled by S&...
Summary There were ample causes for this global downdraft in equity markets. Global equity markets look likely to face a global recession in 2023, which appears to have already begun in the final quarter of 2022. Equity markets will face a tough global environment in 2023, particula...
Summary Return divergences were largely an outgrowth of the collapse in resource stocks. Amid the extreme risk-on/risk-off swings in sentiment spurred by the pandemic and Russia/Ukraine war, industry performances have been as polarized as they've ever been in a decade. The turbulent...
Summary Inflation continues to moderate, not only here, but also in Europe. Despite the negative economic reports and the reaction to the Fed rate hike, the US Dollar barely budged for the week. Value yet again outperformed Growth in the last week, this time by a spread of almost 1%...
Summary China’s inflection point began with the easing of access to credit in the property sector in October 2022. If the International Monetary Fund’s forecasts for resilient EM economic growth in 2023 prove to be correct, this should have a positive effect on revenue tre...
Summary While it’s been a tough year, the Federal Reserve has done investors an enormous favor in terms of the attractiveness of a wide swath of fixed-income asset classes that today look a lot more attractive than a year ago. Jay Powell and the FOMC did raise the Fed funds rate ...