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Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 19,000 for the week ending April 30, coming in at 200,000. Despite some volatility, initial claims remain at an extremely low level by historical comparison. Continuing labor shortages, along with materials shortages and...
Given the wide gap between current inflation and the current policy rate, the current profile still points to an extended run of relatively sharp and rapid hikes in the months ahead. The persistently strong demand for workers, combined with a labor shortage, is keeping unemployment un...
While the stated hikes were the first major increase since 2000, it was an apt response to the inflationary pressures. More than that, it gave some degree of conviction to the markets. In the bond markets, yields fell, as they had overpaced the Fed’s new plan. The other par...
It’s been a brutal few months for stocks and bonds alike, as markets have been confronted with risks posed by inflation, tightening monetary policy, and the war in Ukraine. Market volatility has lifted bond yields, which can create better long-term investment opportunities and ...
The increase in median household income for March 2022 was much smaller than the increase in the median new home sale price recorded for the month. March 2022's median household income was just 17.5% of the value of the median new home sold during the month. The average mortgage p...
As I said last February, Fed tightening is not a near-term threat. M2 is now about $4.8 trillion larger than it would have been with a continuation of 6% annual growth. Outright sales of securities, when they do occur, won't be large and should be easily digested by the bond marke...
Fed hikes key interest rate by 50 basis points as expected. Colbourne: Fed comments appeared slightly dovish despite the risks of inflation. Colbourne: We are concerned about the trajectory of inflation and if it stays sticky and doesn't come down. For further details see: ...
The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...
There are no good choices left for central banks in the US and Japan. They can’t both fight inflation and fund their government’s debts with low interest rates. The debt bubble has been long in the works, but there are no options left to deal with it in a painless way. I...
In January, the bubble indicator showed that the US equity market as a whole was at the edge of a bubble but not in an extreme bubble. The earnings growth discounted in stocks is still a bit high. While the reversal has been significant, discounting of future earnings remains some...
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2024-07-28 07:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-07 14:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-27 21:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...