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CPI rates showed no relief in April. With inflation running at over 8%, there is a good chance real GDP in the second quarter will be down. The bigger problem is if the actual pace of inflation has permanently changed. For further details see: The U.S. Economy May Be Hea...
AIER’s Everyday Price rose 0.5% in April after surging 3.0% in March, 1.3% in February, and 1.0% in January. Price increases continue to be generally broad-based with 20 components showing gains versus three showing declines, and one unchanged in April. Price pressures for ...
Currently, everybody is bearish. Not just in terms of investor sentiment but also in positioning. When levels of negativity have reached or exceeded current levels, such has historically been associated with short- to intermediate-term market bottoms. The market remains exceptiona...
The US government alone spent a record 43.2% of GDP on stimulus efforts in 2020 and 2021. On Monday, the S&P 500 broke below 4000 on the daily close. So far, the largest market cap weight and most widely held stock, Apple, is off just 17% from its $185 top on January 3, 2022. ...
Just when we thought the world economy was regaining its footing, a military conflict in Europe has led us to reconsider our outlook for growth and inflation. In light of Russia’s invasion, we developed a framework for thinking about the economic impact of the conflict on the e...
The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.26%, down from 8.54% the previous month. Year-over-year forecasts were 8.1% for Headline and 6.0% for Core. In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has been the Fed's target for core inflation. For ...
The pace of global economic growth slowed in April to the lowest since the downturn of the second quarter of 2020. While an easing of COVID-19 containment measures on average globally helped to sustain service sector growth in April, the rate of expansion in the service sector fell to...
With 10 basis points left to make bond market history, the 10-year Treasury yield closed on Friday a tad over 3.142%. In the past 40 years, no Fed rate hiking cycle saw the 10-year rate exceed the high from the prior Fed rate-hiking cycle. While inflation is not as bad as it was i...
Some astute stock market observers are pointing out that due to inflation, a massive P/E compression is now underway. You can’t have a negative quarter when nearly all the constituent components of GDP are rising. Small businesses appear to be incurring a higher "quit" rate...
Sentiment on the part of small businesses held firm in April instead of the further decline that was expected. The headline index came in unchanged at 93.2, versus estimates of a 0.3-point decline to 92.9. The percentage of respondents reporting inflation as their firm’s bi...
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2024-07-28 07:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-07 14:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-27 21:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...