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Last week the Fed met, and for a few hours everyone thought it meant one thing, but by the next day, everyone had decided that it didn’t mean that at all. In the end, bond yields barely moved and the outlook for the economy only changed mildly. The 10-year Treasury note yield w...
May retail sales equals $620.2 billion and is sharply above the pandemic low of $409.8 billion. The strong consumer demand has overwhelmed retail and business inventory levels, and this shows in the low inventory-to-sales ratio of these segments. On the other hand, shortages of se...
Retail sales and food-services spending fell 1.3% in May following gains in three of the prior four months. Core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicle dealers and gasoline retailers, posted an 0.8% decline for the month, leaving that measure with a 23.8% gain vs. a year ago. F...
At first glance, May’s retail sales report, like April’s, looks like a big miss, as sales declined -1.3% nominally, and after adjusting for inflation, declined -2.0%. Retail sales are 18% higher than they were in February 2020. Vaccine-driven economic recovery, subdu...
During the pandemic lockdown in the first half of 2020, only three S&P 500 sectors saw positive earnings and revenue growth for Q1 and Q2 ’20. In Q1 ’21, Technology has grown EPS and revenue 53% and 21%, respectively. Once Q2 ’21 earnings start in mid-July...
The US recovery is gaining momentum as the country reopens parts of its economy — boosted by government stimulus and vaccine rollouts. The impact of the global pandemic opened up new opportunities for equity investors. While growth stocks outperformed over much of the last ...
According to PYMNTS’ latest national consumer study fielded earlier in May, which surveyed a representative sample of roughly 2,300 adults, 17% of all consumers reported using digital platforms such as Instacart to order and pay for groceries instead of going to the grocery store t...
In both the April CPI and PPI reports, the Bureau of Labor Statistics seemed to be using language like “largest increase/advance since…” on multiple occasions. Following the inflation fireworks, the markets received two different reports that are directly related ...
At first glance, April’s retail sales report looks like another Big Miss. The big jump in March didn’t get taken back. A gain of another 4 to 6 million jobs, to close to the pre-pandemic peak, is quite possible. For further details see: April Retail Sales '...
Diversification remains key. Flexible strategies can also take advantage of a more uncertain yield and spread environment. We continue to find reasonable opportunity in both public and private credit markets. We find value in non-agency mortgages and prefer cyclicals to growth sto...