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Oil production in the short and longer term threatened due to geopolitical events. Oil services contractors withdrawing from Russia for new work. Multiple oil sites attacked in Saudi Arabia. Very strong US gasoline demand despite the rise in price. For further details se...
OPEC output increased by 440 kb/d according to secondary sources in February. Most of the increase in OPEC output was from Saudi Arabia (141 kb/d) followed by Libya (105 kb/d), Iran (44 kb/d), Iraq (36 kb/d), and Kuwait (32 kb/d). World liquids output was about 1000 kb/d below the...
OPEC + Russia crude exports are up month-over-month. Russia's crude exports have not been impacted yet. Physical oil market has corrected the recent spike. The real bull thesis is in the underperformance of all the other producers in OPEC+. The market is still in a wait-an...
Oil, gas, wheat, and potash prices have all been on an upward trend for more than a year, with a recent sharp acceleration. Inflation rose sharply across many regions of the globe in 2021, with the OECD recording 7.2% annual CPI. While many different factors will influence the lev...
The Russia-Ukraine war will further exacerbate supply chain problems affecting commodity prices as well as energy-dependent and related industries. Delivery times and input price growth eased, but material and labor shortages are at the historical highs in the EU in industry, construc...
March PMI data will therefore be scrutinised for the impact of these events on various economic metrics such as output, supply chains, prices and upon the sole sentiment PMI sub-index - the future output index. Since the eruption of the Ukraine crisis on February 24, commodity prices ...
Although Druzhba is an established supply route to Europe, the connected refineries could likely face disruptions if Europe avoids Russian oil or if the pipeline is shut down for any reason. Alternative supply routes are available through the Baltic Sea. The Plock, Schwedt, and Leuna ...
For the week ending 3/10, we have a draw of 60 Bcf. This compares to the -65 Bcf from the 5-year average and last year. Lower 48 production remains around ~94 Bcf/d, or well below the ~97 Bcf/d peak late last year. If production fails to recover to the highs by May, then the year-...
Inflation pressures were already elevated heading into 2022, and the Russia/Ukraine war is creating additional concerns. The current macro outlook has darkened. The mixture of higher inflation and lower demand adds to an already precarious policy environment. For further det...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with its tragic human toll, likely marks a turning point for the geopolitical and global economic order. Will financial sanctions backfire and accelerate the displacement of the US dollar as primary global reserve currency? We are likely to see...