Previous 10 | Next 10 |
Just a few weeks ago, markets were worried that the US economy might have stagnated in the first quarter. However, a recent raft of positive surprises means that we should be expecting 2.5% annualised growth from Friday's 1Q GDP report. A tough start There was considerable pessimism surrou...
While we believe that optimism regarding an evolving and eventual trade deal between the U.S. and China is well-placed, we would caution investors against growing complacent about trade policy risk more broadly. Other trade actions could weigh on markets and pose a headwind to U.S. economic g...
Someone emailed me with a very good question yesterday: "Did we really go through a once-in-a-lifetime Great Recession in 2008, or is the global economy overleveraged to an even greater extent, just in different ways?" My basic view of the Great Financial Crisis is that it was not unique...
Running On Empty "Running On Empty" was an iconic song about life on the road as a traveling musician. The 1977 live recording, which became a 1978 hit for Jackson Browne, is considered one of true representatives of Heartland Rock and a concert favorite. When Jackson Browne was interviewe...
When real earnings have reached the current extreme in the past, a massive decline in earnings has followed. The bottom in earnings might come in the next recession in as little as two years, or it might take a couple of recessions and take ten years to reach the bottom. Businesses are more ...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on April 22 by Menzie Chinn here . CEA Chair Kevin Hassett has stated a recession by next summer is impossible . I'm wary of such definitive statements. From a May 2008 WSJ article: "The data are pretty clear that we are not i...
This is an absolute, must-see interview. Renowned hedge fund manager Kyle Bass joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough for a “pro-to-pro” discussion on China, global recession, and why interest rates may head to near zero by 2020. You’re not going to get better perspective...
If investors are in any rush to push the S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) above the record-high closing value of 2,930.75 it set back on 20 September 2019, they didn't betray any sign of it during the Good Friday holiday-shortened third week of April 2019, as the index mainly drifted sideways during...
We hope that you had a chance to read our latest Quarterly Letter: Be Your Own Master – The New Retirement . The key to saving enough to retire is in deferring consumption. We have always been more of savers, and working on Wall Street tended to help with deferring cons...
Those who follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P500 ( SPY ) #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will...