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"It is a mistake to give in to the notion that emotions were soothed by 'comforting' words about optimism on the ultimate resolution of the trade disagreement", former trader Richard Breslow wrote on Tuesday morning, in his daily column, adding that it's equally misguided to "indulge in playin...
Since the beginning of 2019, the market has risen sharply. That increase was not due to rising earnings and revenues, which have weakened, but rather from multiple expansion. In other words, investors are willing to pay higher prices for weaker earnings. The issue, of course, is that while i...
A selloff in risk assets last week - driven by fading expectations for a U.S.-China trade deal - has shattered the calm after a prolonged period of low market volatility in 2019. We remain cautiously pro-risk, but see potential for further bouts of volatility in this late-cycle period. This ar...
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) set no new records during the week of trading ending on Friday, May 10, 2019, where stock prices mostly appeared to react to the noise generated by trade negotiations between the United States and China. Overall, the index stayed within the typical range of v...
By Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer - Fixed Income Is the U.S.-China deal dead, and how bad might this get for risk assets? While our confidence that the U.S. and China would find a way to agree on trade has been growing , we always maintained that a failure to do so was the only g...
"They do have a dual mandate, Larry. They do have a dual mandate." That's what CNBC's David Faber told Larry Kudlow on April 26, after the advance read on Q1 GDP showed the US economy growing at a 3.2% clip in the first quarter. That friendly reminder from Faber was necessary because i...
As with IHS Markit and their estimations of Federal Reserve policy in the near future, we can't see any great evidence of a coming significant rise in interest rates nor a change in policy nor forward guidance. Moody's Analytics looks at an entirely different measure to come to much the same...
In the wake of the May 5 tweets that signaled the end of the tariff truce, the dollar was mixed, with a heavier bias. The strongest currencies were the Japanese yen (~1.0%) and Swiss franc (~0.45%). The Dollar Index fell about 0.2%. The major currencies that failed to gain against the dollar...
Well, in a word, "yes" which should surprise no one. Back in the early 2000s, while writing for TheStreet, there was a fellow contributor by the name of Jordan Kahn, out of LA (Kahn Asset Management), who I thought was a good writer and investor. Jordan's framework or process involved the an...