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Is a recession coming? Well, yeah, of course it is, but whether it is now, six months from now or 2 years from now or even longer is impossible to say right now. Our Jeff Snider has been dutifully documenting all the negativity reflected in the bond and money markets and he is certainly right ...
A little tariff here, a little tariff there, and before you know it, it adds up to a whole lot. We read a contributor last year who argued the trade war was irrelevant to the market, but it seems to have taken a new toll. Since May 5, when President Trump tweeted he was hiking tariffs to 25%...
“But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one.” - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock...
By Robert Hughes Weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending May 25 rose 3,000 to 215,000. The four-week average came in at 216,750 versus 220,500 in the prior week. The four-week average has been below 230,000 since February 2018, a very strong performance. By his...
Last week’s article by Jason Zweig (see Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks ) caught my eye, because it warns against investing in Chinese stocks with the expectation of high GDP growth driving high equity returns. A major reason investors allocate to emerging economie...
US economic growth remains on track for substantially slower growth in the second quarter vs. Q1, based on a set of nowcasts. Although the current estimates suggest that the economy will avoid a recession in the immediate future, output for the April through June period appears to be at risk o...
I've been tracking truck tonnage for a long time , and it's been a reliable - and generally bullish - indicator of underlying economic activity. It measures the actual tonnage of freight hauled by the nation's carriers, and this physical measure of the economy's size has also tracked the gain...
Now that the Memorial Day holiday weekend has come and gone, and the end of May will come to an end on Friday, the old adage for the stock market, "sell in May and go away," could have special meaning in 2019. A relaxing summer without excessive risk could be a good idea considering all of t...
Are deflationary recessions real? Most investors seem to think so, but if you look at consumer price levels during periods of recession since after the great depression, it’s not so clear. A deeper look at the end numbers shows that deflationary recessions are not very deflationary at a...
By Jill Mislinski Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 ...