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With the long-running economic expansion showing its age, investors cheered what could turn out to be a well-timed assist from the Federal Reserve. That was the primary market driver last month as stocks posted their best June in more than 80 years — largely on the prospect of monetary ...
2018 had undoubtedly been a dismal year for the S&P 500, with the index closing down -6.24%. However, the market has come roaring back this year, climbing 17.35% in just the first half. Many investors still remain skeptical of the rally, and prefer to play defensive by allocating capital t...
Nirvana swept over global markets in June as all the major asset classes posted gains. Even more remarkable, last month’s across-the-board increases mark the second time this year that everything rose in a calendar month (January also generated a rally in everything). Beta, in oth...
The S&P 500 (Index: SPX ) didn't set any new records in the final week of 2019-Q2, but was still high enough to make the first half of 2019 the best for the index since 1997 . Which is particularly impressive because that period saw what became known as the Dot Com Bubble begin to infla...
My own opinion is that the S&P 500 and the US equity market remain in a "secular" bull market that begin in either March 2009, or April 2013, when the S&P 500 traded over - and stayed above - the March 2000 and October 2007 highs for the S&P 500 of 1,550-1,575. While like most pe...
So, I did say my "worst-case scenario" did not seem like the most likely scenario to play out from the G-20 summit. Now we know my "best-case scenario" and most likely scenario is the one Trump and Xi have chosen, but what does that mean for the month of July? Here was the best-case scenario...
By Robert Hughes The final June results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment fell slightly from the final May result. Consumer sentiment decreased to 98.2 in June, down from 100.0 in May, a 1.8 percent decline (see chart). From a year ago, th...
Well, the additional tariffs - if they happen - will impact the forward estimates, but expectations coming into the start of the 2nd quarter earnings in two weeks are really as low as they have been in years. The headlines will be interesting Sunday night, June 30th, around the China trade tal...
But as we cannot predict such external influences very well, the only reliable crystal ball is a probabilistic one. - Benoit Mandelbrot The C-J Monte Carlo Simulation Model C-J is a Monte Carlo simulation model used to assess risk in the S&P 500. Traditional stock market models suf...