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Source: Financial Times The prevailing thesis is that President Trump must grow jobs in order to ensure reelection. He may not be judged on how soon he can get the economy reopened after the knock-on effects of the coronavirus have weighed. The March jobs report , which showed the economy...
I've been in this business a long time. A "really" long time. As a friend of mine, our Vice Chairman at Schwab at the time, once said, "I'm so old I remember when Chuck Schwab wore glasses and had gray hair." In the intervening years Chuck has reverted to that distinguished gray and done w...
One component of the leading economic indicators is the yield curve. Bond investors keep a close eye on this, as it illustrates the spread or difference between long-term interest rates and short-term ones. - Kenneth Fisher On April 17, 2020, The Conference Board reported that the Leading ...
Sure, there's a recession Th is clear and obvious. U.S. unemployment numbers are soaring past 20 million, there's going to be one heck of a hit to GDP and so on. But we already know all of that. The two questions we'd like e answers to now are how bad is this going to get and how long is it ...
We’re still in a consolidation mode and the market is deciding whether it can advance from here or not, but Tony Greer of the Morning Navigator told Real Vision that he is not expecting a waterfall again when the equity market dips during today’s Daily Briefing. He said t...
PMI Composite FLASH This is one of my favorite leading indicators , because it was the first to tell me that the economy was rolling over just as the S&P 500 (a broken leading indicator) hit all-time highs in February. Hopefully, it will be just as accurate in identifying the beginning ...
The economic and equity market environment investors find themselves operating in today are different and more challenging than any environment they have likely faced in their lifetime. The steep market contraction from the February high was swift, i.e., declining 33.9% over a short 22 trading...
Original art by the Author Does The Market Make Any Sense? Does it make any sense that the S&P 500 ( SPY ) is only about 17% percent below an all-time high? Does it make any sense that the NASDAQ 100 ( QQQ ) is only 11% off its all-time high? Does it make any sense that we alwa...
Current Picture Normally the US stock market moves at a pedestrian pace, with annual moves of about 10% (7% to 12%). We have just completed a two-month period that by statistical definition includes the fastest "bear market" in history and a recovery that would qualify as a one month "bull...
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