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A lot has changed since December, when I declared that month's five-year TIPS reopening auction " a screaming buy ." That auction generated a real yield of 1.129% , the highest for any auction for this term since April 2009. The screaming is over, folks. In just four months, real yields (me...
The purpose of this article is to assess the macro-fiscal flows for March 2019 and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy. Macro fiscal flows impact investment markets with a lagged effect of typically one month. A flush of funds now from government s...
To be clear: I think the fixed rate for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds will fall on May 1 from its current level of 0.5%, the highest in more than 10 years. But I don't know it. Why? Because the U.S. Treasury gives no hint about how it determines the fixed rate for I Bonds. It simply announ...
A sign of the times when central banks make decisions based upon what is happening elsewhere in the world. “Fed Worried About Slowing Global Growth in Pausing Rate Increases” read the headlines in the New York Times . Jim Tankersley begins his article by writing “Fede...
One key feature of the last 15 months has been the consistent declines in the global manufacturing PMI. After peaking in December 2017, the global manufacturing PMI has undergone a major slowdown, and that was a key driver behind the weakness in global markets last year (and a reflection of st...
As I have written many times before, I believe that the Fed follows the market and does not lead it. In fact, you can read my last article on the matter right here, as it explains this perspective using many historical examples. So, in following up on this perspective, let’s see if ...
We are cautious on U.S. Treasuries in the short term after the recent rally. Yet, we still advocate exposure to build portfolio resilience. Scott explains. U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply in March, breaking out of the tight range they had traded in early this year. Could yields head l...
For the past ten years or so, I have argued that investors in the stock market have placed most of their attention on the behavior of the Federal Reserve System. For much of this time Federal Reserve officials led by Chairman Ben Bernanke overtly focused on the stock market with the intentio...
Revisiting Credit Spreads & Quality Spreads Corporate bond spreads, or the difference in yield between a corporate bond and an equal maturity Treasury bond, measures the relative risk of owning various corporate bonds across the risk spectrum relative to the "risk-free" rate. As...
Outspoken former Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth joined Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a no-punches-pulled conversation about the Federal Reserve during our recent Hedgeye Investing Summit . As she explains in the brief excerpt from the interview below, Fed Chair Jerome Powell qui...
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2024-07-24 11:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...