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At the end of the second quarter of 2019, the US economy will have completed ten years of growth, the longest period of economic expansion since the end of the Second World War. It appears as if the annual compound rate of growth will come out around 2.3 percent. As post-World War II busines...
The table below shows the performance of bond categories during each -10% S&P 500 ( SPY ) drawdown since 1987. The charts below show the average performance figures. Since 1987, long-term U.S. government bonds ( TLT ) have been the best-performing category. But as the original table show...
In this commentary, Brian Meaney, Vice President, Taxable Fixed Income Strategist, reviews the first quarter of 2019 and examines our outlook and positioning for the months ahead. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
While the housing market has historically been the catalyst for many U.S. recessions, Hedgeye Housing analyst Josh Steiner explains in the video below why it’s unlikely to be the cause of the next economic downturn. “Housing is normally the cause of recessions – with...
Understanding The Economy: Where Are We Headed? In a recent research note, published about two months ago, I outlined why recession risk was low despite a decelerating economic environment. I made this assessment based on my four-factor coincident index which was constructed based o...
While preparing a chart of upcoming auctions of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities a few weeks ago, I noticed something odd: The Treasury had scheduled a 5-year TIPS reopening in June, in the spot normally reserved for a 30-year TIPS reopening. Was it a typo? Or was the schedule cha...
The U.S. and China could end up in two very different economic environments as we progress throughout 2019. We remain data dependent and will react accordingly – but early signs suggest that the U.S. will remain in stagflationary Quad 3 (growth slowing, inflation rising) for the res...
Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...
We Americans pride ourselves on beating our own records. One of our most recent accomplishments occurred in February of this year when we posted the biggest fiscal deficit in our history as a nation of $234 billion . In one month! If we can sustain that level of spending for the year, we wi...
A lot has changed since December, when I declared that month's five-year TIPS reopening auction " a screaming buy ." That auction generated a real yield of 1.129% , the highest for any auction for this term since April 2009. The screaming is over, folks. In just four months, real yields (me...
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2024-07-24 11:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...