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The U.S. Treasury will offer a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security - CUSIP 9128287D6 - in a $14 billion auction Thursday, with the real yield likely to fall substantially below recent results for this term. As of Friday's market close, the Treasury was estimating the real y...
As the market keeps running joyously up and slumping anxiously down on speculation of Fed interest rate actions, I thought somebody should issue a reminder: Wall Street is not Main Street . There may have been a day when one could simply look at the performance of the stock market to gauge ...
I write fairly often about U.S. Savings Bonds, especially inflation-protected Series I Savings Bonds, and the reaction I get from some Seeking Alpha readers is: "Why the heck is this guy writing about Savings Bonds?" OK, I get it. Savings Bonds are probably the most safe, most elementary, mo...
With the trade war in full swing and the USA attacking many of its trading partners over perceived unfairness in trade relationships, what would happen if Brazil dumped its considerable holding of Treasuries into the secondary market or chose not to buy any more Treasuries and let the remainde...
On the heels of the Osaka trade truce struck between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping over the weekend, investors got the relief rally they were looking for on Monday. Gains were especially pronounced in tech and chip stocks, which surged thanks to the Trump administration's softer approach to the ...
On Wednesday, Goldman slashed their G10 yield forecasts for 2019 and the revisions were pretty dramatic . For instance, the bank now sees 10-year German yields at -0.55% by year-end and 10-year JGB yields at -0.30%. The bank's outlook is well below market forwards. To a certain extent, ...
The 10-year Treasury rate has fallen below 2.0% for the first time since November 2016, blowing through the bearish reasons to "short" bonds at the last "blow-off" top. As I have outlined in many of my past research notes, the driving factors behind US Treasury rates are credit risk, ...
The Treasury's $15 billion reopening auction of CUSIP 9128286N5 - creating a 4-year, 10-month Treasury Inflation-Protected Security - generated a real yield of 0.152%, dramatically lower than recent auctions of this term. Just six months ago, in December, a similar five-year TIPS reopening...
QE trade "animal spirits" were back with a vengeance on Thursday, following yet another dovish surprise from the Fed. Let me just say, right off the bat, that there is no "Cliffs Notes" version of this. I'm going to hit the high points for readers on this platform, but it isn't possible to ...
Earlier this year, I penned a research note detailing a data-driven approach to measuring recession risk. You can read that note from February by clicking here . In that note, which you should read prior to this note if you have not done so, I outline the official definition of a recessi...
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2024-07-24 11:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...