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Equity markets were broadly higher in August, propelled by a late-month resurgence in risk appetite. The FTSE Emerging index rose 2.8% in for all of August, and along with Japan and the US, outperformed the FTSE Developed index gain of 2.6%. Small caps enjoyed a similar renaissanc...
We think inflation is likely to fall back, but we are more sensitive to upside risk than at the start of the year. Evidence of longer-term investment in more and more sectors continues to build. Flexibility and a tactical approach across the full range of credit markets has been a...
Record low real yields across the world betray an exceptional degree of macro angst. Or do they? Don’t look at rates in isolation. Other markets are fine. The tide of central bank purchases lifts all boats, and normal liquidity conditions will only return at the end of the ...
As the world convalesced from the pandemic, stocks advanced in the second quarter and earnings rebounded across sectors. With business gains broadening amid complex market risks, we think investors should lean on quality to find stocks that will perform well in a normalizing world eco...
Although global manufacturing output growth ran at one of the fastest rates seen for over a decade in June, capacity constraints continued to develop, reflecting a lack of labour and a record worsening of supplier delivery times. The shortfall of payroll numbers to new orders was espe...
As the first half of 2021 comes to an end, the global economy is recovering strongly from its sharp decline last year caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Regional economic growth differences during the first half reflect differences in the spread of the pandemic and policy responses to i...
USTs maintain the global lead for outright yields. EUR curve dynamics have decoupled amid EU supply and a steady drumbeat of dovish comments from the ECB to ensure a calm summer. Country CPI data bears upside risks today, but nothing that the ECB wouldn't look through. For f...
The Fed finds itself between a rock and a hard place: either it keeps inflating or the whole confidence-based valuation of financial assets collapses. Either it raises interest rates or the dollar collapses. The lessons from the past have taught us that central bankers only notice a b...
The global economy has reached an important milestone in the second quarter of 2021, surpassing the pre-pandemic real GDP peak attained in the fourth quarter of 2019. After a 3.5% contraction in 2020, global real GDP is projected to increase 6.0% in 2021, its strongest advance since 1...
Global manufacturing PMI buoyed by further strong gains in production. Robust growth seen in the US, Eurozone, India and Brazil despite supply chain delays close to record high. Expansion limited by further slowdown in China, in turn linked to shipping and logistics problems. ...