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Job openings may be sky-high, at least in the estimated form, yet so too are quitters. In between, hiring just matches the intentional straight-line course plotted by the BLS from its CES figures. Each continues to point to different things, when the FOMC really should require the...
There’s a lot of talk about the Fed’s balance sheet, but I think what people forget is that the size of the balance sheets relative to gross domestic product is much higher in Japan and Europe. We seek to invest where the greatest opportunity resides, be it in EMs direct...
Global supply chain bottlenecks have made headlines the past couple of years amid the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions. China’s ageing demographics, which lead to a reduction in labor supply, are necessitating higher value-added manufacturing. A shortage of empty...
The national debt stands at $30.3 trillion, and the US government continues to run massive deficits. But does it really matter? Even if there is no danger of default, the debt has real economic consequences. It puts a big drag on the US economy. At some point, there is a tipping p...
Relief may be in sight for some parts of the supply chain. And we could see things normalize later this year. Recent data from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach indicate some relief, as the vessel backlog has declined meaningfully. In addition, ships are unloading faster. Th...
The headline number of 107.2 was an increase of 1.5 from the final reading of 105.7 for February. Consumer confidence was up slightly in March after declines in February and January. Consumer confidence index and NFIB optimism index have tracked one another fairly closely since th...
The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the total number of job openings in the economy fell to 11.266 million in February. The number of private-sector quits rose, coming in at 4.106 million, up from 4.032 million in January. To...
The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board rose slightly in March and remains at a moderately favorable level overall. For the present situation index components, current business conditions and employment conditions improved. Price pressures have been compounded by s...
With global markets close to post-Ukraine war highs, we remain neutral on global equities. In the UK, the Bank of England is the outlier for now, raising interest rates by a further 0.25% but alluding to the possibility of an easier trajectory of rate increases as growth slows due to ...
The odds of a US economic contraction in the immediate future remain low, but blowback from the Ukraine war and elevated inflation risk could quickly change the calculus. Incoming data in the weeks ahead could be unusually critical inputs for deciding how or if to change the current l...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...