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It appears as if most reactions to today’s April 2022 payroll were quite positive, maybe enthusiastic when they should not have been. The past couple of months for the Establishment Survey have, predictably, fallen right within that statistically-enforced range, though at the l...
Although most historical recessions were associated with slowdowns in debt growth, it is possible for the economy to contract for other reasons - and such a possibility is a key risk at present. Credit risk being the constraint for debt growth is a problem for most macroeconomic model...
The Global Bubble, several decades in the making, is in the process of bursting. A new cycle is emerging, replete with extraordinary uncertainties. Mainly, nervous markets were comforted by the focus on “financial conditions.” The Fed’s hawkish tightening cycle is...
Key highlights from the April U.S. employment report. Bank of England announces fourth rate hike since December. Rising rates, inflationary fears batter markets. For further details see: Is U.S. Wage Growth Starting To Slow?
Every asset class has been on a rollercoaster ride as investors are watching central bankers all around globe tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. The focus for the upcoming week will naturally be a slew of Fed speak and the latest US CPI data which is expected to show inflatio...
Private payrolls posted a 406,000 gain in April, the 11th in a row and 14th in the last 16 months above 400,000. Gains in recent months have been broad-based. The April jobs report shows total nonfarm and private payrolls posted more strong gains. For further details se...
Recession anxiety continues to roil expectations for the US economy, which inspires a periodic review of financial conditions. The current below-zero value indicates financial conditions that are looser than average. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Risk Subindex ...
The markets are exceptionally choppy due to the stagflation fears. I think there are a few other elements contributing to the current volatility. There's no solution. Investors just need to carefully monitor their positions and more importantly, "understand" what they own. F...
Since 2008, a key component of Fed policy has been to buy up mortgage-based securities and government debt so as to both prop up asset prices and increase the money supply. Now, after more than a decade of immense growth in the balance sheet, the Fed says that it will start reducing i...
Initial jobless claims have come off of multi-decade lows in the past few weeks, with the most recent print back up to 200K. Continuing claims set a new low in the most recent print, falling below 1.4 million for the first time since February 1970. Claims will likely continue to f...
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2024-01-03 11:45:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...